3 ms·
No, the safe withdrawal rate of 3.5% does account for inflation. The idea is that the S&P 500 should return around 7-8% per year on average. Lots of information
by nathan_f77 8y ago
No, the safe withdrawal rate of 3.5% does account for inflation. The idea is that the S&P 500 should return around 7-8% per year on average. Lots of information about this in the "r/financialindependence" FAQ [1], particularly the "What about inflation?" section [2]. These results are based on the Trinity Study [3], which is also known as "the 4 percent rule." 3.5% is a more realistic withdrawal rate for a very long retirement, and 3% would be very conservative. 2.5% would almost guarantee that you die with more assets than you started with.
It's also very important to decrease your expenses during a market crash, and to never panic sell. You could also have some other income streams like rental properties, or software businesses.
If you just want to hold cash and bonds, retire at 30, and expect to live until you're 100, then you need to save up 70 * 100000 = $7 million, and spend $100k per year until you die. (Although $100k in 2089 will be worth a lot less than 2019.)
And who knows, maybe longevity treatments and gene therapies will become widely available in the next 70 years, and people might live until they are 200. Or even indefinitely. If you think that might be a possibility, then you should definitely invest in the stock market instead of keeping everything in cash. There is such a thing as "too little risk" when it comes to investing.
[1] https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq
[2] https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq#wiki_what_about_inflation.3F https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/wiki/faq#wiki...
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study