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> Of the $11.4 billion in net revenue the company generated in 2018, $3 billion came in the last three months of the year, up only 2 percent from the previous q

> Of the $11.4 billion in net revenue the company generated in 2018, $3 billion came in the last three months of the year, up only 2 percent from the previous quarter. To what degree does Uber's main business have seasonality? Are people going more places when it's nicer out in the Northern hemisphere?

bunderbunder 8y ago
I'd expect it to be positively correlated with nice weather in tourist destinations, because more people would be in town at all. I'd expect it to be inversely correlated in major urban centers, because the number of people needing to get around will have less seasonal variability, and walking, waiting for a bus and riding a bike are all relatively more attractive options when it's not gross outside.
- moorhosj 8y ago
  Pretty big overlap between tourist destinations and urban centers.
  - bunderbunder 8y ago
    There is, but, percentage-wise, the seasonal swing to the number of people in town is much bigger for Traverse City, MI than it is for New York, NY.
    - moorhosj 8y ago
      The discussion was about Uber's overall revenue. I imagine a far larger percent of their revenue comes from NYC tourists than Traverse City tourists. Traverse City gets about 3.5 million tourists a year [1] compared to 63 million for NYC [2]. [1] https://www.record-eagle.com/news/local_news/tourism-region-s-tourism-industry-continues-to-surge/article_1ffad0db-14ea-5219-9697-e1918c2a282d.html https://www.record-eagle.com/news/local_news/tourism-region-... [2] https://nycfuture.org/research/destination-new-york https://nycfuture.org/research/destination-new-york
goobynight 8y ago
People go more places, but they're more likely to walk. This is if my two options are walking or staying dry/warm in a car.
throwaway-1283 8y ago
The biggest days are going to be holidays...NYE and Halloween are probably #1/#2.
- goobynight 8y ago
  I'm not sure any one day is super important, but I honestly just don't know. Is 1 or 2 spikes in a season that lasts months going to carry you, especially when supply is limited?
  - minimaxir 8y ago
    Many industries (e.g. shopping) strongly depend on the seasonality spikes.
standardUser 8y ago
Here in SF, I notice surge pricing is at it's worst when it's cold or raining. Bad weather seems to compel people to order a car instead of walking or dealing with public transit. I know it does for me.
vishnugupta 8y ago
> Are people going more places when it's nicer out in the Northern hemisphere? Every winter India witnesses a massive influx of westerns to its popular beach holiday locations of India (Goa, Pondicherry, etc.,). Similarly to the hill-stations of north India during summer.

bunderbunder 8y ago

I'd expect it to be positively correlated with nice weather in tourist destinations, because more people would be in town at all. I'd expect it to be inversely correlated in major urban centers, because the number of people needing to get around will have less seasonal variability, and walking, waiting for a bus and riding a bike are all relatively more attractive options when it's not gross outside.

moorhosj 8y ago
Pretty big overlap between tourist destinations and urban centers.
- bunderbunder 8y ago
  There is, but, percentage-wise, the seasonal swing to the number of people in town is much bigger for Traverse City, MI than it is for New York, NY.
  - moorhosj 8y ago
    The discussion was about Uber's overall revenue. I imagine a far larger percent of their revenue comes from NYC tourists than Traverse City tourists. Traverse City gets about 3.5 million tourists a year [1] compared to 63 million for NYC [2]. [1] https://www.record-eagle.com/news/local_news/tourism-region-s-tourism-industry-continues-to-surge/article_1ffad0db-14ea-5219-9697-e1918c2a282d.html https://www.record-eagle.com/news/local_news/tourism-region-... [2] https://nycfuture.org/research/destination-new-york https://nycfuture.org/research/destination-new-york

goobynight 8y ago

People go more places, but they're more likely to walk. This is if my two options are walking or staying dry/warm in a car.

throwaway-1283 8y ago

The biggest days are going to be holidays...NYE and Halloween are probably #1/#2.

goobynight 8y ago
I'm not sure any one day is super important, but I honestly just don't know. Is 1 or 2 spikes in a season that lasts months going to carry you, especially when supply is limited?
- minimaxir 8y ago
  Many industries (e.g. shopping) strongly depend on the seasonality spikes.

standardUser 8y ago

Here in SF, I notice surge pricing is at it's worst when it's cold or raining. Bad weather seems to compel people to order a car instead of walking or dealing with public transit. I know it does for me.

vishnugupta 8y ago

> Are people going more places when it's nicer out in the Northern hemisphere? Every winter India witnesses a massive influx of westerns to its popular beach holiday locations of India (Goa, Pondicherry, etc.,). Similarly to the hill-stations of north India during summer.