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If housing prices are artificially high, but many homes are empty, rents must be low, right? So I would assume it follows that the danger to the Chinese real e

If housing prices are artificially high, but many homes are empty, rents must be low, right? So I would assume it follows that the danger to the Chinese real estate market is consumer tastes shifting to just renting as is rational, which would destroy a lot of these property companies. That is, your value estimate changes from a high probability of selling for huge profit to a high probability of renting for dirt cheap.

swuecho 8y ago
you are right. rent is relatively cheap, but renter do not share same right as home buyer. basically, the gov force you to buy house.
- withhighprod 8y ago
  Not the gov, worse, the culture
- _bxg1 8y ago
  Can you elaborate? Are there literal legal rights that are only afforded to people who own property?
  - sjjshvuiajhz 8y ago
    I’m responding to bookmark this thread and check for any responses later. The article only mentioned a social pressure to buy as a prerequisite for marriage.
  - secabeen 8y ago
    Yes. Under the Hukou System (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system), children could only attend schools in the area where your household was registered. If had a rural Hukou, and moved to an urban area to get a job, your children would not be able to attend school in that urban area. You had to leave them behind in your rural area for them to attend school. There have been reforms to the Hukou system in the last decade, so it's not as harsh as it used to be, but it is still much better to have an urban Hukou than a rural one.
- yingxu 8y ago
  In big cities (shanghai, beijing), some public services are tied to housing. e.g. public schools are only provided for local residents or people have houses in that area.
toomuchtodo 8y ago
Currently, rents are affordable when compared to the purchase price of properties. It's not likely consumer taste shifts; it's deeply embeded in Chinese culture that men need wealth (real estate primarily) and a dowry to a woman's family in order to propose marriage. Combined with far fewer women than men due to China's one child policy [1], it's created two classes of men: those who will continue to attempt to amass wealth to woo a mate, and those who have given up or have looked outside of China for a companion ("lost men"). The wrinkle is that more Chinese women are also opting out of marriage entirely, further increasing competitive forces. It is hard to ignore cultural norms when you operate in a culture, and these norms are creating inelastic demand for housing. The prospect of being alone for the rest of your life is a powerful motivator. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/?utm_term=.6682bf861534 https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-...
- loydb 8y ago
  Maggie Shen King's book _An Excess Male_ is a really interesting speculative take on the long-term implications of this phenomenon. Strongly recommend, it's a good read.

swuecho 8y ago

you are right. rent is relatively cheap, but renter do not share same right as home buyer. basically, the gov force you to buy house.

withhighprod 8y ago
Not the gov, worse, the culture
_bxg1 8y ago
Can you elaborate? Are there literal legal rights that are only afforded to people who own property?
- sjjshvuiajhz 8y ago
  I’m responding to bookmark this thread and check for any responses later. The article only mentioned a social pressure to buy as a prerequisite for marriage.
- secabeen 8y ago
  Yes. Under the Hukou System (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system), children could only attend schools in the area where your household was registered. If had a rural Hukou, and moved to an urban area to get a job, your children would not be able to attend school in that urban area. You had to leave them behind in your rural area for them to attend school. There have been reforms to the Hukou system in the last decade, so it's not as harsh as it used to be, but it is still much better to have an urban Hukou than a rural one.
yingxu 8y ago
In big cities (shanghai, beijing), some public services are tied to housing. e.g. public schools are only provided for local residents or people have houses in that area.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

Currently, rents are affordable when compared to the purchase price of properties. It's not likely consumer taste shifts; it's deeply embeded in Chinese culture that men need wealth (real estate primarily) and a dowry to a woman's family in order to propose marriage. Combined with far fewer women than men due to China's one child policy [1], it's created two classes of men: those who will continue to attempt to amass wealth to woo a mate, and those who have given up or have looked outside of China for a companion ("lost men"). The wrinkle is that more Chinese women are also opting out of marriage entirely, further increasing competitive forces. It is hard to ignore cultural norms when you operate in a culture, and these norms are creating inelastic demand for housing. The prospect of being alone for the rest of your life is a powerful motivator. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/?utm_term=.6682bf861534 https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-...

loydb 8y ago
Maggie Shen King's book _An Excess Male_ is a really interesting speculative take on the long-term implications of this phenomenon. Strongly recommend, it's a good read.