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Some of the threats were handled as being for this year, more than for a not so far future. Even something that have 0.001% probabilities to happen in this part
by gmuslera 8y ago
Some of the threats were handled as being for this year, more than for a not so far future. Even something that have 0.001% probabilities to happen in this particular year can have more significant odds in our lifetimes.
Also, that something didn't happen in the past N years don't mean that it won't happen this one, or that the actual odds are 1/N because unaccounted factors could increase the odds (i.e. global warming is increasing the odds of extreme weather events, even for used-to-be-infrequent weather events). And those unaccounted factors may change odds for most risks, (political, weather, health) or make them worse, or to happen close enough.