If you believe that the trend-line that has held surprisingly steady for the last 17 years ( http://top500.org/lists/2010/11/performance_development http://top5

If you believe that the trend-line that has held surprisingly steady for the last 17 years ( http://top500.org/lists/2010/11/performance_development http://top500.org/lists/2010/11/performance_development ) will keep going, than by my crude eyeballing it looks like about 2019. Granted, there are a lot of good reasons to think it won't quite hold.