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Nope. It is not an odd selection. I named Asian centers. Shanghai has 20 Million people. The Yangtze Delta is an aggregation of probably around 200 Million peo

Nope. It is not an odd selection. I named Asian centers. Shanghai has 20 Million people. The Yangtze Delta is an aggregation of probably around 200 Million people. So I named big population centers in Asia. The big airlines in Singapore and Hongkong have declined a lot. They are missing the hinterland, they can't serve as hubs for China anymore. The same will be happening in UAE. Etihad airlines has problems already. So what are the future hubs for Asia<>Europe and Asia<> Africa? 1. Moscow. Aeroflot is most of the time the cheapest airline from China to Europe. 2. Istanbul and Turkish Airlines. I think no other airlines serves more countries, the new airport in Istanbul aims to be the biggest in the world in the final stage. 3. Addis Abeba and Ethiopian airlines. Addis will be the future hub of Africa (Ethiopia has more than 100MM People). At the same time they will hurt the UAE airlines a lot. Also see: https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ethiopian-best-airline-south-african-airways-profit-loss-africa-travel-a8258836.html https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/ethiopi... Now, I never claimed that there are now A380 flights. But this would be the market, had the plane be build 10 years later and in the stretched version. Not for a flight Moscow to Frankfurt. Not for a flight Addis to Entebbe. But definitely for Shanghai to Moscow. Guangzhou to Addis. Etc. etc. Bring customers from big centers to the Hub. The Hub must have - good geo-location - government backing - enough local customers (e.g. Moscow vs. Dubai) I fly a lot between Asia, Africa and Europe (All three alliances Gold Elite :-) ). I think I know what I am talking about.

deleted 8y ago
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ATsch 8y ago
> So what are the future hubs [...] I see a problem with your assesment right there in your assumption that large hubs will still be a thing in the future. It's becoming more and more obvious that this won't be the case.
ulfw 8y ago
It's an odd selection as population size isn't indicative of aircraft size. Congestion of airports and slot constraints is. Which is why you find most A380s in Dubai, London and on long haul routes like LAX and SYD. EVA flies 2 77W back-to-back on LAX-TPE within half an hour. Istanbul doesn't even have a single A380 gate. None of the airlines you mentioned ever flew an A380 either.
- jayalpha 8y ago
  "It's an odd selection as population size isn't indicative of aircraft size. Congestion of airports and slot constraints is." I disagree. Since it is the wrong solution for the problem. > Which is why you find most A380s in Dubai, London I am not surprised that it did not work for this airlines. "Istanbul doesn't even have a single A380 gate." Not sure what you mean with this. I was talking about the new airport and the airport is prepared for the A380, see link. Again, the A380 is the right solutions in size, it is just wrong in cost performance because it came 10 years too early. https://airlinerwatch.com/new-istanbul-airport-prepares-room-for-the-airbus-a380/ https://airlinerwatch.com/new-istanbul-airport-prepares-room...
dx034 8y ago
With enough capacity, airlines would rather fly 10x A350/B787 between two major cities rather than 5x A380. Offers more choice to the customers (as already for JFK-LAX where you often have a flight every 30 min), saves fuel and makes airlines less vulnerable to idiosyncratic events (e.g. crew sickness or technical fault).
StreamBright 8y ago
The reason why Moscow is cheap is partially geopolitical. Airlines are not particularly fond on their planes getting shot down by military.
- kenneth 8y ago
  Maybe flying a Russian airline is a good way to insure you won't get shot down flying over Russian / Ukrainian airspace (which is hard to avoid if you're flying Europe to Asia)
  - isostatic 8y ago
    Majority of Europe-Asia (southwest, south, southeast) flights route via Turkey/Iraq/Gulf or Romainia/Black Sea/Georgia/Turkmenistan -- especially since MH17. Those heading to East Asia tend to fly over northern Russia, well away from Ukraine Here[0] are planes avoiding Ukraine [0] http://imgur.com/EbNXLpXl.png http://imgur.com/EbNXLpXl.png
    - kenneth 8y ago
      Ukraine is a small country, easy to avoid. The GP was talking about Russia in general though, which is much harder to avoid. The traffic to East Asia is far greater and more important than that to Southeast.
      - isostatic 8y ago
        The last time a plane was shot down over Russian airspace was KE007 in 1983 International flight paths over Russia are a large source of money for the country, Russia isn't going to shoot down any airlines.
        Yizahi 8y ago
        The fact that russian army shot down MH17 from occupied territory doesn't change much really.

deleted 8y ago

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ATsch 8y ago

> So what are the future hubs [...] I see a problem with your assesment right there in your assumption that large hubs will still be a thing in the future. It's becoming more and more obvious that this won't be the case.

ulfw 8y ago

It's an odd selection as population size isn't indicative of aircraft size. Congestion of airports and slot constraints is. Which is why you find most A380s in Dubai, London and on long haul routes like LAX and SYD. EVA flies 2 77W back-to-back on LAX-TPE within half an hour. Istanbul doesn't even have a single A380 gate. None of the airlines you mentioned ever flew an A380 either.

jayalpha 8y ago
"It's an odd selection as population size isn't indicative of aircraft size. Congestion of airports and slot constraints is." I disagree. Since it is the wrong solution for the problem. > Which is why you find most A380s in Dubai, London I am not surprised that it did not work for this airlines. "Istanbul doesn't even have a single A380 gate." Not sure what you mean with this. I was talking about the new airport and the airport is prepared for the A380, see link. Again, the A380 is the right solutions in size, it is just wrong in cost performance because it came 10 years too early. https://airlinerwatch.com/new-istanbul-airport-prepares-room-for-the-airbus-a380/ https://airlinerwatch.com/new-istanbul-airport-prepares-room...

dx034 8y ago

With enough capacity, airlines would rather fly 10x A350/B787 between two major cities rather than 5x A380. Offers more choice to the customers (as already for JFK-LAX where you often have a flight every 30 min), saves fuel and makes airlines less vulnerable to idiosyncratic events (e.g. crew sickness or technical fault).

StreamBright 8y ago

The reason why Moscow is cheap is partially geopolitical. Airlines are not particularly fond on their planes getting shot down by military.

kenneth 8y ago
Maybe flying a Russian airline is a good way to insure you won't get shot down flying over Russian / Ukrainian airspace (which is hard to avoid if you're flying Europe to Asia)
- isostatic 8y ago
  Majority of Europe-Asia (southwest, south, southeast) flights route via Turkey/Iraq/Gulf or Romainia/Black Sea/Georgia/Turkmenistan -- especially since MH17. Those heading to East Asia tend to fly over northern Russia, well away from Ukraine Here[0] are planes avoiding Ukraine [0] http://imgur.com/EbNXLpXl.png http://imgur.com/EbNXLpXl.png
  - kenneth 8y ago
    Ukraine is a small country, easy to avoid. The GP was talking about Russia in general though, which is much harder to avoid. The traffic to East Asia is far greater and more important than that to Southeast.
    - isostatic 8y ago
      The last time a plane was shot down over Russian airspace was KE007 in 1983 International flight paths over Russia are a large source of money for the country, Russia isn't going to shoot down any airlines.
      - Yizahi 8y ago
        The fact that russian army shot down MH17 from occupied territory doesn't change much really.