4 ms·

Beats me, but it’s clearly possible.

pas 8y ago
Why? Maybe it's just what this costs. Better than dreaming up a lower number that has no connection to reality. (Just as software projects are estimated based on wishes instead of hard data.) As trite is to use Musk as an example, BoringCo at least tries to do something to bring costs down. (And they put some money toward that goal.) But a completely powerless and political project planning committee can only make more and more sheets of wasted paper, I'm afraid. Someone mentioned how highways are also very expensive. I don't know why. ( https://medium.com/@TimSylvester/i-agree-it-sounds-astronomical-but-i-actually-understated-the-costs-according-to-artba-2e8baeac2a46 https://medium.com/@TimSylvester/i-agree-it-sounds-astronomi... ) But without changing the fundamentals, without innovation the costs won't come down. We can probably do a very minimal estimate by simply using average/median income, and estimating how much worker hours we need to plan it, review it, procure/tender it, get stuff there (from surveyor equipment and machines to people going there), do the earthworks, fill in the rocks and gravel that will serve as the foundation, then pour the concrete (or better yet use prefab/precast), then surface works, then put there all the signs, safety stuff (railings), environmental protection stuff (noise barrier), and maybe that's what it costs. So, as long as we can't streamline, uniformize and scale up these processes, it'll be just very labor intensive and expensive.
- mikeash 8y ago
  "...because similar projects in other places cost far, far less." If Alice is doing something and Bob says it's impossible, I don't need to know how to do it to point out that Bob is wrong and it's actually possible. (And it's not just a matter of saving costs through environmental destruction and labor abuse. Infrastructure costs much less in other first-world countries too.)
  - pas 8y ago
    But other places have other price tags. Sure, there are problems - for example there is a frequently referenced study by one EU oversight institution from 2013. And it turns out that highways built between 2000 and 2012 sponsored by the EU were cheapest in Germany, where components were more expensive, than in Spain (where everything from labor to land and concrete were cheaper, including compliance to environmental regulations). Of course that's corruption. But the US has probably a different problem. Cost inflation, because the market bears it. Supply and demand. States pay a lot, so suppliers ask a lot.

pas 8y ago

Why? Maybe it's just what this costs. Better than dreaming up a lower number that has no connection to reality. (Just as software projects are estimated based on wishes instead of hard data.) As trite is to use Musk as an example, BoringCo at least tries to do something to bring costs down. (And they put some money toward that goal.) But a completely powerless and political project planning committee can only make more and more sheets of wasted paper, I'm afraid. Someone mentioned how highways are also very expensive. I don't know why. ( https://medium.com/@TimSylvester/i-agree-it-sounds-astronomical-but-i-actually-understated-the-costs-according-to-artba-2e8baeac2a46 https://medium.com/@TimSylvester/i-agree-it-sounds-astronomi... ) But without changing the fundamentals, without innovation the costs won't come down. We can probably do a very minimal estimate by simply using average/median income, and estimating how much worker hours we need to plan it, review it, procure/tender it, get stuff there (from surveyor equipment and machines to people going there), do the earthworks, fill in the rocks and gravel that will serve as the foundation, then pour the concrete (or better yet use prefab/precast), then surface works, then put there all the signs, safety stuff (railings), environmental protection stuff (noise barrier), and maybe that's what it costs. So, as long as we can't streamline, uniformize and scale up these processes, it'll be just very labor intensive and expensive.

mikeash 8y ago
"...because similar projects in other places cost far, far less." If Alice is doing something and Bob says it's impossible, I don't need to know how to do it to point out that Bob is wrong and it's actually possible. (And it's not just a matter of saving costs through environmental destruction and labor abuse. Infrastructure costs much less in other first-world countries too.)
- pas 8y ago
  But other places have other price tags. Sure, there are problems - for example there is a frequently referenced study by one EU oversight institution from 2013. And it turns out that highways built between 2000 and 2012 sponsored by the EU were cheapest in Germany, where components were more expensive, than in Spain (where everything from labor to land and concrete were cheaper, including compliance to environmental regulations). Of course that's corruption. But the US has probably a different problem. Cost inflation, because the market bears it. Supply and demand. States pay a lot, so suppliers ask a lot.