3 ms·
The first caveat is that China's numbers are not the same quality as the numbers from open economies; while perhaps not entirely fabricated, they are certainly
by toss1 8y ago
The first caveat is that China's numbers are not the same quality as the numbers from open economies; while perhaps not entirely fabricated, they are certainly tainted by influence and non-standard accounting and reporting practices designed to make the CCP look good.
More importantly, the key here is the trend. When there is both a large overhang of debt, and simultaneously slowing growth, that is a recipe for trouble. If the scale and scope is minor, it can possibly be managed into a 'soft landing'.
If not, it could easily get out of control, and spiral into a liquidity crisis for that economy, and since there are so many links between economies, spread overall.
The real question is whether this is just a blip in a very large and noisy environment, or if it is the crumbling of some critical supporting bricks in their economic edifice?