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> Predicting something 2-3 years early is not a "prediction", it's a failure to predict. Why do you say that?
by checkyoursudo 8y ago
> Predicting something 2-3 years early is not a "prediction", it's a failure to predict.
Why do you say that?
- snowwrestler 8y agoPredicting the economy will experience a recession is like predicting a person will die: you'll be right eventually, but without knowing when, you can't do much useful with that information.
- dragontamer 8y agoIMO, this is the time for policy makers to start to debate policy changes. It takes over a year for tax laws to have any effect for example, and maybe 2 or 3 years before tax laws really kick in and affect the economy. (First year, people will be typically surprised at their new refunds instead of really spreading it over the year) Trump's Tax Cuts were written into law in 2017, but only these months (tax season 2019) is when people are fully understanding the scope of the tax law, as it hits our pocketbooks. A surefire predictor within 2-years or so is good for policymakers, but probably bad for traders.