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Typically business cycles of the us economy last about 38 months. So your "predictor" that comes two years early isn't predicting anything. An analogy would be
by oceanplexian 8y ago
Typically business cycles of the us economy last about 38 months. So your "predictor" that comes two years early isn't predicting anything. An analogy would be saying that you can predict 50/100 Blackjack games with 90% accuracy. Sure- you can, but it's a meaningless prediction that has no correlation to any individual game.
Example: https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/Recessions-Historical.png https://awealthofcommonsense.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/...
- dragontamer 8y agoI'm not sure if you've studied other "indicators". But the point I'm trying to make is that we ALL know that indicators in economics are kinda bad. But of all the bad indicators economists have, the Yield Inversion is one of the most powerful, predictive, and correct indicators in existance. That indicator alone should give people pause. Well, when it happens. The 10-year has NOT inverted yet, but its darn close to inverting.