I don't think that's the right logic. Say there are ten "events" that have had recessions follow them (or not). Each of these events happened 10 times. For th

I don't think that's the right logic. Say there are ten "events" that have had recessions follow them (or not). Each of these events happened 10 times. For the first type of a event, a recession happened just once afterwards. For the second type of event, a recession happened twice. For the third type of event, a recession happened three times The third, a recession happened three times. The fourth, a recession happened four out of ten times. The fifth, a recession happened five times. Etc... This has very little to do with flipping a coin, and much more to do with deciding the right time to pay attention. Half a chance of getting hit by a car is not the same as "flipping a coin." Generally, throughout the past hundred years or so, there has been much less than a 50% chance to enter a recession. I don't know the numbers, but for any given year, it could be 10%. If there is now a 50% chance, isn't that a 5 fold increase in risk?