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> Yes, everyone's got it wrong because in the same breath you tell us the price is going up then not to look at the price. You're a lot like a climate change d

> Yes, everyone's got it wrong because in the same breath you tell us the price is going up then not to look at the price. You're a lot like a climate change denier. Just like there is a difference between weather and climate, there is a difference between short term volatility vs a long term trend. > Inflation isn’t bad because you’re not supposed to hold cash. You’re supposed to use it to purchase productive assets, like stocks, bonds or real estate which track and exceed inflation. It’s even good for borrowers because debts become cheaper over time. It’s a regular haircut for unproductive capital, the mechanism by which capitalism allocates capital efficiently. Money isn’t supposed to become more valuable by virtue of you just having it. Under your bird bath, of course because it’s not safe anywhere else. There isn't a "supposed to/not supposed to" argument. Cryptocurrency doesn't have to be something that is supposed to be anything. Inflation gives a currency pressure to be traded, yes, and being able to trade it easily makes it more useful, and hence adds to its popularity. But it's not the only reason a currency becomes popular, and the other benefits that cryptocurrency have over little green pieces of paper are IMO enough so it can continue to grow. > Even the hardcore coiners on reddit have started admitting it’s sole value is hiding your wealth offshore out of reach of the long arm of the tax man. Or for the narcos! It can be easily transferred anywhere in the world almost instantly, and ownership very well hidden. These are great benefits, even if they haven't been completely capitalized on yet. I'm not sure if Bitcoin or some other cryptocurrency is going to end up the leader, but I do believe that this industry is going to continue to grow. The cryptocurrency market has crashed and recovered 6 times in the last 8 or 9 years or so. All of your arguments had exactly the same amount of weight as they did the previous 5 crashes, yet the crypto market recovered and greatly surpassed even the weighty highs of the peak before the last crash. Are you really going to tell me that this time is different?

arcticbull 8y ago
I’m no denier, I have facts. The declining hash rate, the declining price, the exchanges going under, the 85% of dApps that don’t have a single daily transaction on average, the miners shutting down, going out of business, steam, Microsoft, Expedia all stopping supporting crypto. And the price too. It takes some serious head in the sandmanship not to notice. I will tell you this time is different in the same way you tell yourself on the way up each time it’ll be different and this time it won’t crash. What’s different this time is there are no new bag holders. They all lost their shirts last time around. The price relies on new bag holders because 1800 new BTC are generated by miners and then sold to pay the electricity bills. That’s $2.4 billion dollars per year in sales pressure. The more the price goes up the more the sales pressure goes up. $20K per bitcoin requires $13B in new bag holder money per year. $100K means $65B in new bag holder money per year. You sidestepped all the issues I pointed out: usability, intentionally built to prevent stopping scams, fraud, illegal activity. How it can’t serve the needs of the public. Nothing. Just more religious/MLM/ponzi sales pitch of hope, pray, moon soon. You even said so where you mentioned it’s a good thing your idle useless capital is increasing in value for NO REASON.
- illumin8 8y ago
  > The declining hash rate, the declining price, the exchanges going under This has happened every previous cycle. When mining becomes less profitable, the hash rate declines and difficulty declines until it reaches equilibrium. Currently 1800 BTC are being created every day, but when the next "halvening" happens I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in price as all of a sudden the same amount of demand is competing for half the daily supply (900 BTC). If you look at past cycles, the "halvening" has precipitated many BTC bull runs.
  - arcticbull 8y ago
    Again you side step. This time side stepped that everyone’s now heard of and been burned by btc which was not true prior to the last run up, that my figures are still astronomical whether halved or not, or quartered, or eighthed. That major companies were burned by it. VCs were burned by it. That people have come down from their hopium high and realized blockchain in and of itself won’t solve literally any problem it’s thrown at better than MySQL will. You side step explaining why you think your money should be magically worth more over time. The question is whether there’s still 2.4 or 1.2 billion in new cash to add every single year until the next “mooning” which if were using your own expectations will be followed by an equally horrific crash. Why would we use that kind of thing as a currency?
    - illumin8 8y ago
      You presume nobody was burned in the last 5 boom/bust cycles, and that VCs are too stupid to look at history before making an investment.
- topmonk 8y ago
  Everytime it's crashed it's recovered to a point where the low is now higher than the last peak. I am fully aware of that and expect if it zooms up again, it probably will crash again. I don't deny this. But if when it crashes it ends up higher than the last peak, who cares? I didn't sidestep your issues. I didn't address them directly, but that doesn't mean I didn't address them. They were as valid as they during the last crashes, and proven to not prevent a recovery then, so therefore the same issues do not prevent a recovery now. You weren't providing any reasons that a recovery like it did before, even in the face of all the issues you mentioned. Now you respond with a new reason: > What’s different this time is there are no new bag holders. They all lost their shirts last time around. The price relies on new bag holders because 1800 new BTC are generated by miners and then sold to pay the electricity bills. That’s $2.4 billion dollars per year in sales pressure. The more the price goes up the more the sales pressure goes up. $20K per bitcoin requires $13B in new bag holder money per year. $100K means $65B in new bag holder money per year. By "bag holders" you talk as if it's a big scam. Only it's not. Everything is out in the open for people to see, and no one is lying about what it is. Whether people in the future will choose to invest or not, and whether the industry will continue to grow or not is what determines whether the price will recover. You say there won't be any more of that, due to price pressure from miners, but again, there has always been pressure from miners and that didn't prevent recovery the last 5 times. I grant you the selling pressure from the miners has increased, but the size of the market has also increased as well. Also, due to block reward halving, they do not increase at the same rate. So, even if the selling pressure is too much currently, for the market to grow enough and make up for it, it will eventually reduce so that won't be the case forever. To repeat though, I also am not 100% sure bitcoin will be the dominate cryptocurrency. As I said before, I'm bullish on the cryptocurrency market in general, not just bitcoin.

arcticbull 8y ago

I’m no denier, I have facts. The declining hash rate, the declining price, the exchanges going under, the 85% of dApps that don’t have a single daily transaction on average, the miners shutting down, going out of business, steam, Microsoft, Expedia all stopping supporting crypto. And the price too. It takes some serious head in the sandmanship not to notice. I will tell you this time is different in the same way you tell yourself on the way up each time it’ll be different and this time it won’t crash. What’s different this time is there are no new bag holders. They all lost their shirts last time around. The price relies on new bag holders because 1800 new BTC are generated by miners and then sold to pay the electricity bills. That’s $2.4 billion dollars per year in sales pressure. The more the price goes up the more the sales pressure goes up. $20K per bitcoin requires $13B in new bag holder money per year. $100K means $65B in new bag holder money per year. You sidestepped all the issues I pointed out: usability, intentionally built to prevent stopping scams, fraud, illegal activity. How it can’t serve the needs of the public. Nothing. Just more religious/MLM/ponzi sales pitch of hope, pray, moon soon. You even said so where you mentioned it’s a good thing your idle useless capital is increasing in value for NO REASON.

illumin8 8y ago
> The declining hash rate, the declining price, the exchanges going under This has happened every previous cycle. When mining becomes less profitable, the hash rate declines and difficulty declines until it reaches equilibrium. Currently 1800 BTC are being created every day, but when the next "halvening" happens I wouldn't be surprised to see an increase in price as all of a sudden the same amount of demand is competing for half the daily supply (900 BTC). If you look at past cycles, the "halvening" has precipitated many BTC bull runs.
- arcticbull 8y ago
  Again you side step. This time side stepped that everyone’s now heard of and been burned by btc which was not true prior to the last run up, that my figures are still astronomical whether halved or not, or quartered, or eighthed. That major companies were burned by it. VCs were burned by it. That people have come down from their hopium high and realized blockchain in and of itself won’t solve literally any problem it’s thrown at better than MySQL will. You side step explaining why you think your money should be magically worth more over time. The question is whether there’s still 2.4 or 1.2 billion in new cash to add every single year until the next “mooning” which if were using your own expectations will be followed by an equally horrific crash. Why would we use that kind of thing as a currency?
  - illumin8 8y ago
    You presume nobody was burned in the last 5 boom/bust cycles, and that VCs are too stupid to look at history before making an investment.
topmonk 8y ago
Everytime it's crashed it's recovered to a point where the low is now higher than the last peak. I am fully aware of that and expect if it zooms up again, it probably will crash again. I don't deny this. But if when it crashes it ends up higher than the last peak, who cares? I didn't sidestep your issues. I didn't address them directly, but that doesn't mean I didn't address them. They were as valid as they during the last crashes, and proven to not prevent a recovery then, so therefore the same issues do not prevent a recovery now. You weren't providing any reasons that a recovery like it did before, even in the face of all the issues you mentioned. Now you respond with a new reason: > What’s different this time is there are no new bag holders. They all lost their shirts last time around. The price relies on new bag holders because 1800 new BTC are generated by miners and then sold to pay the electricity bills. That’s $2.4 billion dollars per year in sales pressure. The more the price goes up the more the sales pressure goes up. $20K per bitcoin requires $13B in new bag holder money per year. $100K means $65B in new bag holder money per year. By "bag holders" you talk as if it's a big scam. Only it's not. Everything is out in the open for people to see, and no one is lying about what it is. Whether people in the future will choose to invest or not, and whether the industry will continue to grow or not is what determines whether the price will recover. You say there won't be any more of that, due to price pressure from miners, but again, there has always been pressure from miners and that didn't prevent recovery the last 5 times. I grant you the selling pressure from the miners has increased, but the size of the market has also increased as well. Also, due to block reward halving, they do not increase at the same rate. So, even if the selling pressure is too much currently, for the market to grow enough and make up for it, it will eventually reduce so that won't be the case forever. To repeat though, I also am not 100% sure bitcoin will be the dominate cryptocurrency. As I said before, I'm bullish on the cryptocurrency market in general, not just bitcoin.