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I strongly believe that the NFL will cease to exist as a major sports league in the foreseeable future (< 25 years). It increasingly seems that CTE is an unavoi

I strongly believe that the NFL will cease to exist as a major sports league in the foreseeable future (< 25 years). It increasingly seems that CTE is an unavoidable side effect of the game, and as that reality really registers with parents the steady supply of young players is going to dry up. I've heard people say that it will end up a niche sport like boxing (which has its own obvious brain trauma problems), but you need a lot more potential football players to maintain a viable league than you do potential boxers to maintain the level of professional boxing we have today. edit: typo

cooperadymas 8y ago
I've been hearing this for 10-15 years now. Meanwhile, not only is the NFL still exceedingly popular, but there are new football leagues popping up everywhere, giving even more people the chance to play at a professional / semi-pro level.
- SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
  It's got so much cultural momentum behind it at so many levels - college, high school, even younger - it's like trying to stop that 400 lbs lineman. It seems to be the best way small town America can create heroes and legends for itself.
  - Kye 8y ago
    It only takes one generation. Parents might be able to force kids into it for a while, but that won't sustain it to the pro level if other things draw their interest. Kids these days seem to be more about making stuff in games and meeting people all over the world in eSports than knocking heads together. And their parents seem to be okay with it.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- ZacharyPitts 8y ago
  At the same time, high school participation is way down over the past 10 years: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/30/high-school-football-numbers-drop-brain-trauma https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/30/high-school-fo... (plus many more articles with just a quick search). Locally, a couple of high schools dropped varsity football because they couldn't get enough recruits for brain injury.
  - Dirlewanger 8y ago
    Interesting to read, but I wonder how many of those schools actually sent kids to D1 schools. I'd be willing to bet that most of the schools shuttering their football programs weren't college football recruitment hotspots to begin with and only had the odd kid every few years play at a D1 level.
aaron-lebo 8y ago
It's possible, but the "minor" league which debuted Saturday night got higher overnight ratings than the Rockets-Thunder which was the league's marquee game Saturday. The sport is just fantastically more popular than other sports in the US. That might change, but I wouldn't count on it.
mondo9000 8y ago
Parents worried about CTE are threatening the talent pipeline, but the insurance angle is just as interesting http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/25776964/insurance-market-football-evaporating-causing-major-threat-nfl-pop-warner-colleges-espn http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/25776964/insurance-marke... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18945697 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18945697
Balgair 8y ago
CTE is a major issue for parents and the NFL in general. Others mention that this results in a decreased 'pipeline' of talented players[0]. Heck, even Donny himself is uncharacteristically cagey about his youngest son playing on the gridiron: >President Donald Trump said football was a dangerous sport and that he would have a hard time letting his son Barron play given the risk of head injuries. [1] [0] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/02/football-white-flight-racial-divide/581623/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/02/football-... [1] https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/03/trump-barron-football-face-the-nation-sot-vpx.cnn https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/03/trump-barron-...
mcast 8y ago
I don't believe this, mainly because football will always be an easy and cheap sport for 20+ people to play and be entertained because the only equipment you need is a football and a grassy field. Meanwhile, safer and more affluent communities will put their children in sports that have a higher bar of wealth to join. Sports such as golf or tennis require a golf club membership, expensive clubs or equipment, and expensive maintenance for playing and earning lessons.
- spectrum1234 8y ago
  Cheap? Do you mean association football? All the gear makes is more expensive than many sports.
  - mcast 8y ago
    No, I'm talking about recreational football, which is how people get into the sport before they enter high school football.
mulmen 8y ago
Technicians fall to their deaths from cell towers all the time. Do you think wireless data services are threatened by this? What about factory conditions in China? We stomach real harm to other people all the time. I don't think the NFL is going anywhere and if they do the concussion issue will be a minor factor.
- rchaud 8y ago
  > Technicians fall to their deaths from cell towers all the time. I now have significant reservations about allowing my child to partake in the great American tradition of professional cell tower maintenance.
  - mulmen 8y ago
    Sure, your child, but what about someone else's? Way more people use cell phones than watch the NFL and more people die or suffer life altering injury supporting that industry than they do playing football in the NFL.
    - biesnecker 8y ago
      I think the fear is that you're wrong, and that a substantial fraction of those who play in the NFL suffer life altering brain injuries, it's just slow and mostly affects players well after retirement so it's not as obvious.
      - mulmen 8y ago
        I'm not disputing the health risks to players. Not sure where you got the impression that I was. I just don't think the health consequences to the players will significantly harm the viability of the NFL as a product.
cellularmitosis 8y ago
I would suspect they would change the sport if it started trending towards obsolescence, with things like removing helmets and padding to discourage hard hits (i.e. slowly transform football into rugby). However, it sounds like the evidence is unclear at this point regarding CTE and rugby https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5926651/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5926651/

cooperadymas 8y ago

I've been hearing this for 10-15 years now. Meanwhile, not only is the NFL still exceedingly popular, but there are new football leagues popping up everywhere, giving even more people the chance to play at a professional / semi-pro level.

SketchySeaBeast 8y ago
It's got so much cultural momentum behind it at so many levels - college, high school, even younger - it's like trying to stop that 400 lbs lineman. It seems to be the best way small town America can create heroes and legends for itself.
- Kye 8y ago
  It only takes one generation. Parents might be able to force kids into it for a while, but that won't sustain it to the pro level if other things draw their interest. Kids these days seem to be more about making stuff in games and meeting people all over the world in eSports than knocking heads together. And their parents seem to be okay with it.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
ZacharyPitts 8y ago
At the same time, high school participation is way down over the past 10 years: https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/30/high-school-football-numbers-drop-brain-trauma https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/jan/30/high-school-fo... (plus many more articles with just a quick search). Locally, a couple of high schools dropped varsity football because they couldn't get enough recruits for brain injury.
- Dirlewanger 8y ago
  Interesting to read, but I wonder how many of those schools actually sent kids to D1 schools. I'd be willing to bet that most of the schools shuttering their football programs weren't college football recruitment hotspots to begin with and only had the odd kid every few years play at a D1 level.

aaron-lebo 8y ago

It's possible, but the "minor" league which debuted Saturday night got higher overnight ratings than the Rockets-Thunder which was the league's marquee game Saturday. The sport is just fantastically more popular than other sports in the US. That might change, but I wouldn't count on it.

mondo9000 8y ago

Parents worried about CTE are threatening the talent pipeline, but the insurance angle is just as interesting http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/25776964/insurance-market-football-evaporating-causing-major-threat-nfl-pop-warner-colleges-espn http://www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/25776964/insurance-marke... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18945697 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=18945697

Balgair 8y ago

CTE is a major issue for parents and the NFL in general. Others mention that this results in a decreased 'pipeline' of talented players[0]. Heck, even Donny himself is uncharacteristically cagey about his youngest son playing on the gridiron: >President Donald Trump said football was a dangerous sport and that he would have a hard time letting his son Barron play given the risk of head injuries. [1] [0] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/02/football-white-flight-racial-divide/581623/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/02/football-... [1] https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/03/trump-barron-football-face-the-nation-sot-vpx.cnn https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2019/02/03/trump-barron-...

mcast 8y ago

I don't believe this, mainly because football will always be an easy and cheap sport for 20+ people to play and be entertained because the only equipment you need is a football and a grassy field. Meanwhile, safer and more affluent communities will put their children in sports that have a higher bar of wealth to join. Sports such as golf or tennis require a golf club membership, expensive clubs or equipment, and expensive maintenance for playing and earning lessons.

spectrum1234 8y ago
Cheap? Do you mean association football? All the gear makes is more expensive than many sports.
- mcast 8y ago
  No, I'm talking about recreational football, which is how people get into the sport before they enter high school football.

mulmen 8y ago

Technicians fall to their deaths from cell towers all the time. Do you think wireless data services are threatened by this? What about factory conditions in China? We stomach real harm to other people all the time. I don't think the NFL is going anywhere and if they do the concussion issue will be a minor factor.

rchaud 8y ago
> Technicians fall to their deaths from cell towers all the time. I now have significant reservations about allowing my child to partake in the great American tradition of professional cell tower maintenance.
- mulmen 8y ago
  Sure, your child, but what about someone else's? Way more people use cell phones than watch the NFL and more people die or suffer life altering injury supporting that industry than they do playing football in the NFL.
  - biesnecker 8y ago
    I think the fear is that you're wrong, and that a substantial fraction of those who play in the NFL suffer life altering brain injuries, it's just slow and mostly affects players well after retirement so it's not as obvious.
    - mulmen 8y ago
      I'm not disputing the health risks to players. Not sure where you got the impression that I was. I just don't think the health consequences to the players will significantly harm the viability of the NFL as a product.

cellularmitosis 8y ago

I would suspect they would change the sport if it started trending towards obsolescence, with things like removing helmets and padding to discourage hard hits (i.e. slowly transform football into rugby). However, it sounds like the evidence is unclear at this point regarding CTE and rugby https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5926651/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5926651/