4 ms·
Define long-term. You could just as well say the universe will eventually collapse in on itself and that will cause extinction in the long-term. None of the spe
by xamuel 8y ago
Define long-term. You could just as well say the universe will eventually collapse in on itself and that will cause extinction in the long-term. None of the species during the Permian-Triassic extinction knew about things like nuclear power plants etc.
- makerofspoons 8y agoUsing Mark Lynas' book Six Degrees and the representative concentration pathways from the IPCC report long term for me is a century. The earliest we would see 5 degrees of warming would be around 2100 under RCP 8.5, the business-as-usual pathway. At that amount of warming we can expect a Cretaceous-like climate where methane eruptions destroy infrastructure in the northern hemisphere, super hurricanes flood the coasts, and hydrogen sulfide from the dead oceans suffocate terrestrial life. Of course, we likely are no longer on the business-as-usual pathway, we are taking some limited steps to mitigate climate change so I would say more likely long-term means 100-500 years, unless we significantly make changes to put us closer to the RCP 6.0 or RCP 4.5 pathways which are merely disastrous instead of fatal.