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It would only be notable if pundits can accurately predict if there will be a recession in the next year. I doubt they can because these things are difficult/im

It would only be notable if pundits can accurately predict if there will be a recession in the next year. I doubt they can because these things are difficult/impossible to predict (otherwise no one would have lost money in the Great Recession in 2008). You say it is obvious that we are at a peak of a growth cycle. Maybe you are right, but you also could very well be wrong... People have been saying we are at a peak for several years now. My point was mainly that your analogy was a stretch.

ajross 8y ago
None of that is correct, though. Plenty of people in 2007 were complaining about overheated real estate markets (though no one outside the banking industry knew the disastrous leverage that was in flight). Plenty of people in 1999 (even the Fed chariman! Remember "irrational exuberance"?) could see that the dot com boom was unsustainable. In both situations wehre were predictions of downturns everywhere in the media, and they were right. Likewise lots of people were predicting a few years solid growth starting in 2009. And they were right too! And all I'm saying is that it's more likely that they were right because economic cycles are broadly predictable on the multi-year scales and not because Paul Krugman has some kind of magical power to produce a recession just by talking about it.