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"By 2005 or so, it will become clear that the Internet's impact on the economy has been no greater than the fax machine's."

baxtr 8y ago
Reminds me of “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.” Paul Samuelson (1966)
jacobolus 8y ago
An economist’s prediction about the impact of new technology 8 years out is not comparable to an economist’s prediction about the near future of the economy or the effectiveness of government intervention. Dragging this quotation out anytime Krugman says anything is weak and lazy. Pick any person who routinely makes a broad range of public predictions about what will happen in the medium term, and you will find some they got hilariously wrong.
- pnw_hazor 8y ago
  What has he got right? "But what is certain at this point [12/2017] so far in Trump's presidency is that anyone who sold stock on the basis of predictions by liberal "experts" like Larry Summers or Paul Krugman or Steve Rattner missed out on a 30%-plus surge in their financial wealth. At some point the market will take a tumble and these discredited gurus will shout "see." https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/and-the-hits-just-kept-coming-the-greatest-false-predictions-of-2017/ https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/and-the-hits-j...
  - bb88 8y ago
    He predicted 2008 back in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/running-out-of-bubbles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/running-out-of-bu...
77pt77 8y ago
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-effect-economy/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff... Veredict: True!
kerbalspacepro 8y ago
The article this is from is here: https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redher...
pnw_hazor 8y ago
Out of all the incorrect predictions and offbase hottakes Krugman has made over his media career, the Internet-impact quote is one of only two predictions Krugman admits to getting wrong. Krugman is not credible. https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/10/niall-ferguson-paul-krugman-gets-it-wrong-again-and-again-and-again-why-does-anyone-still-listen-to-him/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/10/niall-ferguson-paul-kr...

baxtr 8y ago

Reminds me of “The stock market has forecast nine of the last five recessions.” Paul Samuelson (1966)

jacobolus 8y ago

An economist’s prediction about the impact of new technology 8 years out is not comparable to an economist’s prediction about the near future of the economy or the effectiveness of government intervention. Dragging this quotation out anytime Krugman says anything is weak and lazy. Pick any person who routinely makes a broad range of public predictions about what will happen in the medium term, and you will find some they got hilariously wrong.

pnw_hazor 8y ago
What has he got right? "But what is certain at this point [12/2017] so far in Trump's presidency is that anyone who sold stock on the basis of predictions by liberal "experts" like Larry Summers or Paul Krugman or Steve Rattner missed out on a 30%-plus surge in their financial wealth. At some point the market will take a tumble and these discredited gurus will shout "see." https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/and-the-hits-just-kept-coming-the-greatest-false-predictions-of-2017/ https://www.investors.com/politics/columnists/and-the-hits-j...
- bb88 8y ago
  He predicted 2008 back in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/running-out-of-bubbles.html https://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/running-out-of-bu...

77pt77 8y ago

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-effect-economy/ https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/paul-krugman-internets-eff... Veredict: True!

kerbalspacepro 8y ago

The article this is from is here: https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html https://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/http://www.redher...

pnw_hazor 8y ago

Out of all the incorrect predictions and offbase hottakes Krugman has made over his media career, the Internet-impact quote is one of only two predictions Krugman admits to getting wrong. Krugman is not credible. https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/10/niall-ferguson-paul-krugman-gets-it-wrong-again-and-again-and-again-why-does-anyone-still-listen-to-him/ https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2013/10/niall-ferguson-paul-kr...