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> It's often the foolhardy and the ignorant that [...] sometimes end up succeeding. Please name some examples. How often is sometimes? What is their probabilit

by xtho 16y ago

> It's often the foolhardy and the ignorant that [...] sometimes end up succeeding. Please name some examples. How often is sometimes? What is their probability of success compared to that of domain experts?

weego 16y ago
Will get pointed up but just smacks of passive-agressive argumental. History, specifically in science and math is full of examples where people who actively sought to question the knowledge of more senior experts have made discoveries that advanced the knowledge of human-kind and have then been overlooked or ignored because they did not have the correct background. Institutions such as The Royal Society and The Geological Society where created exactly on this principle. The idea that "you cannot question X because X is a learned man above your station" is what IMO destroys general interest in fields such as physics. You have to spend a career following the party line in the hope that one day you will be given enough rope to actually challenge anything. How on earth would you put probability on something like that?
- xtho 16y ago
  The existence of a black swan doesn't imply that swans are usually black. A. "There are examples where newcomers to a field found a novel solution that senior experts have missed." B. "It is often the ignorant who succeeds." B does not follow from A. Not even in mathematics where people use to say that you have to prove yourself worthwhile by the age of 25 or it won't happen. > You have to spend a career following the party line in the hope that ... This is a slightly different discussion but IMHO in many fields (e.g. medicine) contemporary science has little to do with genious or insight but rather is an industrial effort ... and that _often_ isn't fun.
  - danio 16y ago
    A lesson on logic from somebody who equates "It's often the foolhardy and the ignorant that tackle problems that are supposedly impossible. And sometimes end up succeeding" to "It is often the ignorant who succeeds" seems ironic to put it mildly.
    - xtho 16y ago
      :-)
presidentender 16y ago
I can think of one: http://www.snopes.com/college/homework/unsolvable.asp?a http://www.snopes.com/college/homework/unsolvable.asp?a
- xtho 16y ago
  From the page: "George Bernard Dantzig, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Berkeley. ... George Dantzig (himself the son of a mathematician) received a Bachelor's degree from University of Maryland in 1936 and a Master's from the University of Michigan in 1937." Not exactly my definition of somebody ignorant.
  - gruseom 16y ago
    Certainly not, but he was ignorant of the most important fact, that these were unsolved problems. This is one of the greatest stories ever. If it weren't true it would have to have been invented... but it is true.
    - Retric 16y ago
      Just because someone does not know a solution to a given problem does not mean they think it's impossible. The teacher gave the problem as examples of something that seems solvable but nobody has a correct solution to. Then someone with a lot of domain knowledge spent some time and solved it. IMO, that’s says more about the value of domain knowledge than tenacity. It's not like they spent 20 years comming up with a solution. PS: There are a lot of long standing math problems which people have spent vary little time trying to solve.
      - presidentender 16y ago
        He was ignorant of the fact that the problems were supposed to be impossible. That's in line with the parent comment's sentiment.
        Retric 16y ago
tedunangst 16y ago
The model of the atom that was popular before the current model. The model of the atom that was popular before that one. The model of the atom before..., ok you get the point. If you'd like more, A Short History Of Everything by Bill Bryson is about 600 pages of examples.

by xtho 16y ago

weego 16y ago

Will get pointed up but just smacks of passive-agressive argumental. History, specifically in science and math is full of examples where people who actively sought to question the knowledge of more senior experts have made discoveries that advanced the knowledge of human-kind and have then been overlooked or ignored because they did not have the correct background. Institutions such as The Royal Society and The Geological Society where created exactly on this principle. The idea that "you cannot question X because X is a learned man above your station" is what IMO destroys general interest in fields such as physics. You have to spend a career following the party line in the hope that one day you will be given enough rope to actually challenge anything. How on earth would you put probability on something like that?

xtho 16y ago
The existence of a black swan doesn't imply that swans are usually black. A. "There are examples where newcomers to a field found a novel solution that senior experts have missed." B. "It is often the ignorant who succeeds." B does not follow from A. Not even in mathematics where people use to say that you have to prove yourself worthwhile by the age of 25 or it won't happen. > You have to spend a career following the party line in the hope that ... This is a slightly different discussion but IMHO in many fields (e.g. medicine) contemporary science has little to do with genious or insight but rather is an industrial effort ... and that _often_ isn't fun.
- danio 16y ago
  A lesson on logic from somebody who equates "It's often the foolhardy and the ignorant that tackle problems that are supposedly impossible. And sometimes end up succeeding" to "It is often the ignorant who succeeds" seems ironic to put it mildly.
  - xtho 16y ago
    :-)

presidentender 16y ago

I can think of one: http://www.snopes.com/college/homework/unsolvable.asp?a http://www.snopes.com/college/homework/unsolvable.asp?a

xtho 16y ago
From the page: "George Bernard Dantzig, a doctoral candidate at the University of California, Berkeley. ... George Dantzig (himself the son of a mathematician) received a Bachelor's degree from University of Maryland in 1936 and a Master's from the University of Michigan in 1937." Not exactly my definition of somebody ignorant.
- gruseom 16y ago
  Certainly not, but he was ignorant of the most important fact, that these were unsolved problems. This is one of the greatest stories ever. If it weren't true it would have to have been invented... but it is true.
  - Retric 16y ago
    Just because someone does not know a solution to a given problem does not mean they think it's impossible. The teacher gave the problem as examples of something that seems solvable but nobody has a correct solution to. Then someone with a lot of domain knowledge spent some time and solved it. IMO, that’s says more about the value of domain knowledge than tenacity. It's not like they spent 20 years comming up with a solution. PS: There are a lot of long standing math problems which people have spent vary little time trying to solve.
    - presidentender 16y ago
      He was ignorant of the fact that the problems were supposed to be impossible. That's in line with the parent comment's sentiment.
      - Retric 16y ago

tedunangst 16y ago

The model of the atom that was popular before the current model. The model of the atom that was popular before that one. The model of the atom before..., ok you get the point. If you'd like more, A Short History Of Everything by Bill Bryson is about 600 pages of examples.