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I'm a little confused by this comment. Increasing the market for short journeys seems like the kind of thing autonomous cars are really bad at. I already have a
by timerol 8y ago
I'm a little confused by this comment. Increasing the market for short journeys seems like the kind of thing autonomous cars are really bad at. I already have a car in my driveway+, and I can take it 5-10 minutes to a number of stores and friends' houses for trivial marginal cost. I can't imagine taking more short trips because I don't have to drive 10 minutes here and there.
There is already a big market for long car journeys, and there is where autonomous cars can really beat the competition. But, as you mentioned, there's a pretty hard upper bound here, as the time cost is significant, even if the monetary cost went to $0. Overnight trips could become more common, but people don't seem to like those very much.
I can see automated cars as disrupting the market by being cheaper, since you don't have to own them. I don't see the savings generated from that as going into more car journeys, but maybe that's just my lack of imagination.
+I don't actually own a car currently, but that's beside the point. I have in the past.
- Misdicorl 8y agoThe cost for short trips is enormous if you amortize in the cost of your personal vehicle- say at 30% vehicle TCO divided by number of short trips. Roughing up some numbers puts your personal cost at ($40,000 TCO)/(100 trips/yr)/(10 yr service)20% = $8/trip. That's huge! In addition, all those trips require on site parking which is a huge* community cost and directly increases the cost of whatever service you're consuming.
- creeble 8y ago$8/trip is less than the average Lyft or Uber ride. The problem with transportation and measuring 'trips' (in the US anyway) is the huge geographical diversity. My take on Ben-Evans post is that you are fooling yourself to believe that you can predict market demand for certain kinds of disruptive technologies.