4 ms·

If you look at market share though it seems to actually be holding solid or growing [1]. This makes me believe a more neutral narrative that it's due to people

by robk 8y ago

If you look at market share though it seems to actually be holding solid or growing [1]. This makes me believe a more neutral narrative that it's due to people upgrading from lousy low end android to higher end android much faster than an existing iPhone user would upgrade. The top 25% of the population use iPhones and aren't leaving the Apple platform - the folks who bought a low end phone are upgrading to higher end much more rapidly. [1] https://www.statista.com/statistics/262176/market-share-held-by-mobile-operating-systems-in-china/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/262176/market-share-held...

oblio 8y ago
It's Windows vs Mac all over again, people just wouldn't believe it :) 1 company vs 100. All the 100 companies would have to be knuckleheads forever (which is super unlikely, it's basically: "you can fool some people all the time or all the people sometimes, but you can't really fool all the people all the time"). Android is moving up in the world, and except for the US, which was always a bit weird in regards to Apple, Android will make Windows' dominance look like a walk in the park. Look at what Google's doing with relatively weaker dominance of Chrome in the web browser world.
- scarface74 8y ago
  Windows vs Mac is a very shallow interpretation. -the affluence level of iOS users dwarf Android users statistically. A person who can afford a $700 iPhone is much more valuable than a person buying a $220 Android phone (the average selling price of an Android phone) - Apple couldn’t keep up performance wise with the Mac because you had the entire PC industry funding Intel. Hardly anyone is making money selling Android phones. Apple is making 80% of the profit in the phone market. -iOS is doing well in most affluent countries https://deviceatlas.com/blog/android-v-ios-market-share https://deviceatlas.com/blog/android-v-ios-market-share
  - oblio 8y ago
    My personal opinion is that the future of technology isn't in the current affluent countries. Besides this, we already know that the vast majority of people stay within their ecosystems, once they start using them. Especially know that the differences in phone quality are going down (cheap phones are getting good; a cheap Android phone from 2010 was miles away from an iPhone, a cheap Android phone from 2020 will be comparatively much, much closer). So the future isn't looking very bright for Apple, considering that India, China and Africa are almost entirely Android territories :) Just keep in mind that Windows failed for 10+ years before having the smash hit that was Windows 95.
    - scarface74 8y ago
      Windows “failed” but the whole time Microsoft was making a killing selling DOS. Microsoft, Intel, and the PC manufactures were all making money. The PC market drove a demand for high performing chips and even when PCs were being commoditized, there was enough of a demand for high end processors to keep Intel’s R&D effort strong. The high end profitable niche of the Android market is teeny. It’s eveb worse in the tablet market and the wearable market. Not even Google is making any real money on Android. It came out during the Oracle trial that Android has only made Google $39 billion during its entire existence. Even then, they pay Apple over $2 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS devices. Mobile hasn’t been that great for anyone in the Android ecosystem. Android as a whole is nothing more than unprofitable race to the bottom. What use it to sell to 3 billion people buying $50 phones? If Apple starts losing the high end, then it needs to worry. Even in the PC market, none of the PC manufacturers are rolling in cash - except for Apple. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple makes more selling Macs than all PC manufacturers make selling computers (excluding servers). On a second thought, the biggest users of servers are probably cloud companies and Facebook and many of them are making their own servers.
      - orangecat 8y ago
        It came out during the Oracle trial that Android has only made Google $39 billion during its entire existence. Even then, they pay Apple over $2 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS devices. If Android didn't exist, Google would likely be paying even more to be the default search engine on non-iOS devices, or they'd have significantly lower search revenue.

by robk 8y ago

oblio 8y ago

It's Windows vs Mac all over again, people just wouldn't believe it :) 1 company vs 100. All the 100 companies would have to be knuckleheads forever (which is super unlikely, it's basically: "you can fool some people all the time or all the people sometimes, but you can't really fool all the people all the time"). Android is moving up in the world, and except for the US, which was always a bit weird in regards to Apple, Android will make Windows' dominance look like a walk in the park. Look at what Google's doing with relatively weaker dominance of Chrome in the web browser world.

scarface74 8y ago
Windows vs Mac is a very shallow interpretation. -the affluence level of iOS users dwarf Android users statistically. A person who can afford a $700 iPhone is much more valuable than a person buying a $220 Android phone (the average selling price of an Android phone) - Apple couldn’t keep up performance wise with the Mac because you had the entire PC industry funding Intel. Hardly anyone is making money selling Android phones. Apple is making 80% of the profit in the phone market. -iOS is doing well in most affluent countries https://deviceatlas.com/blog/android-v-ios-market-share https://deviceatlas.com/blog/android-v-ios-market-share
- oblio 8y ago
  My personal opinion is that the future of technology isn't in the current affluent countries. Besides this, we already know that the vast majority of people stay within their ecosystems, once they start using them. Especially know that the differences in phone quality are going down (cheap phones are getting good; a cheap Android phone from 2010 was miles away from an iPhone, a cheap Android phone from 2020 will be comparatively much, much closer). So the future isn't looking very bright for Apple, considering that India, China and Africa are almost entirely Android territories :) Just keep in mind that Windows failed for 10+ years before having the smash hit that was Windows 95.
  - scarface74 8y ago
    Windows “failed” but the whole time Microsoft was making a killing selling DOS. Microsoft, Intel, and the PC manufactures were all making money. The PC market drove a demand for high performing chips and even when PCs were being commoditized, there was enough of a demand for high end processors to keep Intel’s R&D effort strong. The high end profitable niche of the Android market is teeny. It’s eveb worse in the tablet market and the wearable market. Not even Google is making any real money on Android. It came out during the Oracle trial that Android has only made Google $39 billion during its entire existence. Even then, they pay Apple over $2 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS devices. Mobile hasn’t been that great for anyone in the Android ecosystem. Android as a whole is nothing more than unprofitable race to the bottom. What use it to sell to 3 billion people buying $50 phones? If Apple starts losing the high end, then it needs to worry. Even in the PC market, none of the PC manufacturers are rolling in cash - except for Apple. I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple makes more selling Macs than all PC manufacturers make selling computers (excluding servers). On a second thought, the biggest users of servers are probably cloud companies and Facebook and many of them are making their own servers.
    - orangecat 8y ago
      It came out during the Oracle trial that Android has only made Google $39 billion during its entire existence. Even then, they pay Apple over $2 billion a year to be the default search engine for iOS devices. If Android didn't exist, Google would likely be paying even more to be the default search engine on non-iOS devices, or they'd have significantly lower search revenue.