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Perhaps the most important paragraph in the article: "Everyone is competing against everyone else. If one firm succeeds in making the market more efficient thro
by rjf72 8y ago
Perhaps the most important paragraph in the article: "Everyone is competing against everyone else. If one firm succeeds in making the market more efficient through quantitative techniques, then there’s less money left over for other people to make exceptional investment returns. There will be one or two firms that are good at innovation and recognizing things that other people haven’t recognized. But everyone else will be fighting over scraps."
The market is, in theory, not a zero sum game. Algorithmic systems, in practice, are. In theory the only way you can genuinely beat the market is when you find an inefficiency in it. And inefficiencies are generally based on a lack of knowledge. If everybody knows what you know, that inefficiency will no longer exist. And now pair this with the reality that most (and it's probably safe to say all) algorithmic systems are not really especially complex. That doesn't mean they're easy to make though. The 'secret sauce' is in exactly what data is used, how the pieces you have interoperate, the way inputs and outputs are massaged, and so on. But this drives a huge need for secrecy. Nobody who is successful is going to want to talk about how their system is designed largely because most would not be especially difficult to replicate if they provided more than very abstract details.
- awongh 8y agoIs this always true? One thing I wonder is, given that the amount of money needed to move the needle in a market could be actually quite large, how much money woyuld you need to make off a given inefficiency before it becomes a zero-sum game? Is it 10s of thousands? Hundreds of thusands? Millions? And given some metric like trading volume how much does that affect that number? I've heard of some hedge funds raising way less than they could have, maybe because their strategies would be killed much faster with 500mm than with 50mm ?
- blackflame7000 8y agoIt's not a zero-sum game because debt is limitless. Imagine an extreme example where you rigged the game and literally won all the money in the world and then kept winning, what would happen next? People would find another form of payment via services and the money is worthless if you are the only one who has it. Therefore you might lend them money in exchange for a service so that they will keep playing your rigged game now accruing a credit of services in addition to money.