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The "Principle of Least Regret" is an excellent way to make decisions, particularly binary ones: Given a choice between action X and action Y, and given all th

The "Principle of Least Regret" is an excellent way to make decisions, particularly binary ones: Given a choice between action X and action Y, and given all the facts and experience and self-knowledge currently at one's disposal, which option will you look back on in future with fewer/lesser regrets? You then commit to the path that you currently judge minimises your future contrition. The very literal minded will take this at face value and miss the point of the construct, which is that having committed to a given path you have minimised your regret even if it turns out to be the wrong choice. Because you can look back and say "given the information I had, it looked like the right one". Which is another way of saying, "if I had my time again, I'd do it the same way", only now with rational evidence of this claim. Thus turning confirmation bias into an affirmative and effective decision tool, by preforming the outcome around it. If you follow this procedure, you may still turn out unhappy, but you won't blame yourself. It is especially recommended for people who may otherwise experience chronic decision paralysis comorbidly with crippling imposter syndrome.

alasdair_ 8y ago
>Given a choice between action X and action Y, and given all the facts and experience and self-knowledge currently at one's disposal, which option will you look back on in future with fewer/lesser regrets? One practical issue with this advice is that it can lead to the "death of a thousand cuts" where any single binary event can be weighed one way but over the course of thousands of iterations, the aggregate would be weighed the opposite. Sure, in theory one would take into account all possible futures where this could happen but in practical terms that is a tough thing to do and there is seldom a good point to stop.
- inopinatus 8y ago
  That hasn't been a problem in practice. What you're describing makes it sound like The Dice Man, but decision regret hasn't turned out to be an aggregate function. Under the POLR framework each past decision becomes a sunk cost; each committed decision is the new baseline. On the other hand I tend only to apply it for substantial life decisions. Quitting my job to launch a startup; getting married; moving to another country (x4); not eating the entire cheesecake; choosing Vim over Emacs etc.
  - ph0rque 8y ago
    > not eating the entire cheesecake (x100 a year)
meko 8y ago
Your comment reminded me of the film Arrival; <spoilers> Where at the end once the mc has the new ability, she can see her painful future, and yet she accepts it because, well, what can you do about predestination? Had me thinking, if an individual could perceive time non-linearly, would they see their future folly, and yet perform the same mistakes, at peace with their actions? </spoilers>

alasdair_ 8y ago

>Given a choice between action X and action Y, and given all the facts and experience and self-knowledge currently at one's disposal, which option will you look back on in future with fewer/lesser regrets? One practical issue with this advice is that it can lead to the "death of a thousand cuts" where any single binary event can be weighed one way but over the course of thousands of iterations, the aggregate would be weighed the opposite. Sure, in theory one would take into account all possible futures where this could happen but in practical terms that is a tough thing to do and there is seldom a good point to stop.

inopinatus 8y ago
That hasn't been a problem in practice. What you're describing makes it sound like The Dice Man, but decision regret hasn't turned out to be an aggregate function. Under the POLR framework each past decision becomes a sunk cost; each committed decision is the new baseline. On the other hand I tend only to apply it for substantial life decisions. Quitting my job to launch a startup; getting married; moving to another country (x4); not eating the entire cheesecake; choosing Vim over Emacs etc.
- ph0rque 8y ago
  > not eating the entire cheesecake (x100 a year)

meko 8y ago

Your comment reminded me of the film Arrival; <spoilers> Where at the end once the mc has the new ability, she can see her painful future, and yet she accepts it because, well, what can you do about predestination? Had me thinking, if an individual could perceive time non-linearly, would they see their future folly, and yet perform the same mistakes, at peace with their actions? </spoilers>