4 ms·
That's actually not what the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) postulates. The EMH does not state that it's impossible to find opportunities to make a better-th
by throwawaymath 8y ago
That's actually not what the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) postulates. The EMH does not state that it's impossible to find opportunities to make a better-than-market return. It states that it's impossible to predict those opportunities.
In other words, the EMH does not preclude $20 bills from lying on the street. It does imply that, in an idealized market which is informationally efficient, you cannot predict where people are dropping $20 bills around the city.
Your example is one of the most common mis-analogies of what the EMH states. But in point of fact, if the EMH precluded any better-than-market returns, it would not be possible to have a market since you'd have no risk or volatility.