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I think there are a few good responses to the question of "are markets efficient?". 1) Markets are efficient enough in that you generally don't see any real bi
by chollida1 8y ago
I think there are a few good responses to the question of "are markets efficient?".
1) Markets are efficient enough in that you generally don't see any real big arbitrage opportunities. Small ones will always be present, and as is often pointed out its not worth the big players time to search them out and capitalize.
A trader also sees this as evidenced by the fact that we are using more and more data and ever increasingly complicated math to eek out smaller and smaller chunks of alpha.
2) different people have different ideas as to what the correct price actually is.
Consider a company that is continually losing money.
- Fundamental analysts will value this as a poor company due to its future cash flows dwindling. They may consider this a short opportunity
- Merger Arb folks may bid up this up as a potential merger target thus raising the price.
- ETF's tracking an index just don't care, they'll buy the company in proportion to its index weight.
- Stat arb folks will be agnostic to price and only compare it to a peer that they feel it will trade in relation ship with, these people will be both long and short this company at different times, often unrelated to what its price currently is.
3) Physics often uses the simplifying assumption of no friction to make things easier. The efficient market hypothesis works under the assumption that everyone knows about news immediately and has time to react. Some investors react in micro seconds, some in weeks. Both affect the price
- walshemj 8y agoWell in the UK I have as a amateur investor taken advantage of arbitrage in the last few years. One on a big trust Witan that had gone out to a much bigger discount than normal due to a stock overhang caused by a forced sale. The other was Electra private equity which was on a huge discount.
- subjectHarold 8y agoIt's only an arb if your net exposure is zero. If you want an arb, look at Hansa. You can buy their trust and sell an underlying porfolio which, if you do it right, should come out to very close to zero exposure. But most CEFs aren't selling at a discount because of liquidity, they are just shit (if the manager is decent, they should buy back shares to close the discount).