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I’m somewhat surprised by the tone of surprise in this article/interview. While I still frequently see references to “out-of-control population growth” among l

I’m somewhat surprised by the tone of surprise in this article/interview. While I still frequently see references to “out-of-control population growth” among laypeople here on HN or on Twitter, often in reference to Africa, I have long gotten the impression that the scientific and political communities have turned to models showing drastically lower birth rates coinciding with increased development. Lower infant mortality, access to birth control, and social safety nets that do not rely on immediate family are obvious factors here. This is umabigoulsy good news, unless you posit a harm from not being born. In any case, it’s unlikely that humanity is going to disappear of its own choosing.

Robotbeat 8y ago
The slowing of the birthrate to manageable levels is very good, but too much of that (i.e. below replacement) leads to an inverted age pyramid, which is NOT unambiguously good. The fact that birthrates are falling and many countries will be left with a huge number of elderly folk without enough young folk to take care of them is not unambiguously good, particularly when it happens everywhere so there's nowhere to import young immigrants from.
- EGreg 8y ago
  An inverted age pyramid can be just fine if automation picks up the slack and causes productivity per capita to soar. The great thing about automation is that it’s always improving, never going back (except when old equipment gets retired). Once Tesla improves feature X it’s rolled out to all cars at once, for instance.
  - pixl97 8y ago
    > if automation picks up the slack and causes productivity per capita This is only true if the income disparity is not out of control. Current trends show us that income disparity is increasing where the super rich gain everything, and the poor are screwed without some kind of income redistribution (high wealth taxes for example).
    - EGreg 8y ago
      That’s why I’d like to see us move in the direction of: UBI Automation Open Source Software And I am putting my money where my mouth is, for 7 years: https://qbix.com https://qbix.com https://intercoin.org https://intercoin.org
thousandautumns 8y ago
Its not unambiguously good news. There are several countries such as Japan and Sweden that are looking down the barrel of inverted population pyramids in their immediate future and the consequences are expected to be dire. Yes, overpopulation can and should be a concern, but underpopulation should be one as well, and already is for pockets of the world.
- detcader 8y ago
  Have we ever seen this happen to a drastic degree in recent times? If so, what happened? Who says that governments couldn't address a crisis, when they often involve themselves heavily in crises the economy, bailing out banks and so on. If a modern government can force every young person to to join the army for the ostensible "defense of the nation" (e.g. Israel) , why not force them to take care of old people?
  - pixl97 8y ago
    >If a modern government can force every young person to to join the army. "Joining the army" and "Fighting a battle every day" are two different things. Most of the time armies are not doing anything. And when they are, it is a significant threat to ones continued existence, something humans are highly optimized to fight for. Keeping the old people alive has a few problems. First, if you take grandma to the roof and throw her off, it does not directly affect your continued existence (unless you consider law enforcement action, but we'll leave this out for now). In this case you are economically better having a geriatrics purge. Second, taking care of old people is insanely depressing. Throwing most people to these terrors is just going to increase the suicide rate in young people. Third, and separately, how does the government 'force'? Right, they take young men with guns and point said guns at the population. So you're telling me that the larger old population is going to vote to tell part of the young population to take guns, point them at the other young population and have them take care of the old one. Um, so you want to have a revolution, ya ya. Also, young (working age) people create wealth. Old people consume it. Where is this government going to get its tax dollars from?
    - 8y ago

Robotbeat 8y ago

The slowing of the birthrate to manageable levels is very good, but too much of that (i.e. below replacement) leads to an inverted age pyramid, which is NOT unambiguously good. The fact that birthrates are falling and many countries will be left with a huge number of elderly folk without enough young folk to take care of them is not unambiguously good, particularly when it happens everywhere so there's nowhere to import young immigrants from.

EGreg 8y ago
An inverted age pyramid can be just fine if automation picks up the slack and causes productivity per capita to soar. The great thing about automation is that it’s always improving, never going back (except when old equipment gets retired). Once Tesla improves feature X it’s rolled out to all cars at once, for instance.
- pixl97 8y ago
  > if automation picks up the slack and causes productivity per capita This is only true if the income disparity is not out of control. Current trends show us that income disparity is increasing where the super rich gain everything, and the poor are screwed without some kind of income redistribution (high wealth taxes for example).
  - EGreg 8y ago
    That’s why I’d like to see us move in the direction of: UBI Automation Open Source Software And I am putting my money where my mouth is, for 7 years: https://qbix.com https://qbix.com https://intercoin.org https://intercoin.org

thousandautumns 8y ago

Its not unambiguously good news. There are several countries such as Japan and Sweden that are looking down the barrel of inverted population pyramids in their immediate future and the consequences are expected to be dire. Yes, overpopulation can and should be a concern, but underpopulation should be one as well, and already is for pockets of the world.

detcader 8y ago
Have we ever seen this happen to a drastic degree in recent times? If so, what happened? Who says that governments couldn't address a crisis, when they often involve themselves heavily in crises the economy, bailing out banks and so on. If a modern government can force every young person to to join the army for the ostensible "defense of the nation" (e.g. Israel) , why not force them to take care of old people?
- pixl97 8y ago
  >If a modern government can force every young person to to join the army. "Joining the army" and "Fighting a battle every day" are two different things. Most of the time armies are not doing anything. And when they are, it is a significant threat to ones continued existence, something humans are highly optimized to fight for. Keeping the old people alive has a few problems. First, if you take grandma to the roof and throw her off, it does not directly affect your continued existence (unless you consider law enforcement action, but we'll leave this out for now). In this case you are economically better having a geriatrics purge. Second, taking care of old people is insanely depressing. Throwing most people to these terrors is just going to increase the suicide rate in young people. Third, and separately, how does the government 'force'? Right, they take young men with guns and point said guns at the population. So you're telling me that the larger old population is going to vote to tell part of the young population to take guns, point them at the other young population and have them take care of the old one. Um, so you want to have a revolution, ya ya. Also, young (working age) people create wealth. Old people consume it. Where is this government going to get its tax dollars from?
  - 8y ago