3 ms·
The instantaneous impact on the share price is just one aspect. The more worrying effects are the priority claim that debt holds over equity, and the future dyn
by mikhailfranco 8y ago
The instantaneous impact on the share price is just one aspect. The more worrying effects are the priority claim that debt holds over equity, and the future dynamics of cashflow v. interest rates.
Bond interest payments are fixed and mandatory.
Dividends are variable and discretionary.
If recession hits and cashflow falls, it becomes more difficult to pay the interest coupon on the bonds. Or if rates rise, it becomes more expensive to roll-over the debt at maturity. Hint - rates have been rising at a time when 2019 revenue forecasts are falling.
The size of the problem is shown by the proportion of Investment Grade corporate debt that is BBB-rated, just above junk. In a recession, those companies may see reduced cashflow, and hence have their credit rating reduced one notch to junk. Then many regulated investors (e.g. pension funds) may have to sell the bonds, which reduces their price and increases their interest rate, making it yet more expensive for the companies to rollover debt, or increase debt to survive the recession. Hence a negative feedback loop leads to a deeper recession.
Here's good explanation, with a chart showing the ballooning of BBB-rated debt (note the axis is trillions, with a 't'):
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-05/what-blows-first https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-05/what-blows-first