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This is the internet. Facebook will be lucky if it survives past the current generation, much less generations. It was only a few years ago that myspace was all

This is the internet. Facebook will be lucky if it survives past the current generation, much less generations. It was only a few years ago that myspace was all the rage. Its not my intent to bash Facebook, but things change so fast in ways not many can predict.

rryyan 16y ago
The internet is also relatively young. Is it not unreasonable that the pace of change might stabilize over time, and a few long-term players will emerge? What I'm saying is -- I don't think the internet itself is old enough that there enough precedent to predict how long a vastly influential internet company like Facebook might last. It's not unusual for companies to be many decades old -- why does it seem assumed that an internet company that is fairly new today won't be around in 30 years?
- angrycoder 16y ago
  I don't doubt that some internet companies will be around in 30 years. I just don't know about facebook, because they are company based on social interaction. The way we interact with each other on the internet changes often. Right now, facebook is the rage with kids. That is fine when they are in middleschool and highschool. Honestly, I cannot fathom dragging around every friend and acquaintance I've made with me through my entire life. There's a reason why you loose touch with most of your friends after highschool.
  - phlux 16y ago
    >I just don't know about facebook, because they are company based on social interaction. The way we interact with each other on the internet changes often. That is the problem with their new messaging platform -- they are trying to mold the way we interact so as to keep users in their walled garden. This is a good, albeit spooky, move on their part. I wouldnt underestimate the strategery [sic] in this particular play -- especially given the assimilation of the recent goog defectors, including Maps and Wave creator.... This is not a short sighted effort on the part of FB. Sure, Zuck may have a lot of unlikeable qualities etc... but truly, he has done one thing better than any entrepreneur with the same level of skill; surround himself with really really (really rich) good advisors.
  - utefan001 16y ago
    Facebook is the rage not only for kids but for a lot of people. My friend is an ENT who works at the hospital. The running joke is the only way to get a nurse to know what you need them to do is to communicate with them on facebook.
- anthuswilliams 16y ago
  Sure it will. But the post isn't about which companies will survive. It's about which will win.
tedunangst 16y ago
It was only a few years ago that Google search was all the rage. :) There was a lot of turnover in search before Google. There was a lot of turnover in social sites before Facebook. So Facebook sticking around would not be unprecedented. All the failed giants of the past eventually fail, except the last one. On top of that, I think Facebook has innovated (ok, at least iterated) more frequently and intensely on their basic offering than nearly anybody. Compare with Google, where we went from search results with ads to search results plus 3 thumbnails with ads.
timdorr 16y ago
I beg to differ. MySpace had maybe 75 million users at peak. Facebook has 500 million active users right now and is growing. That's 25% of the total Internet population. And they have a smarter distribution strategy (those widgets are everywhere), making them harder to just disappear suddenly. It's certainly within the realm of possibility, but it's not likely for a long while.

rryyan 16y ago

The internet is also relatively young. Is it not unreasonable that the pace of change might stabilize over time, and a few long-term players will emerge? What I'm saying is -- I don't think the internet itself is old enough that there enough precedent to predict how long a vastly influential internet company like Facebook might last. It's not unusual for companies to be many decades old -- why does it seem assumed that an internet company that is fairly new today won't be around in 30 years?

angrycoder 16y ago
I don't doubt that some internet companies will be around in 30 years. I just don't know about facebook, because they are company based on social interaction. The way we interact with each other on the internet changes often. Right now, facebook is the rage with kids. That is fine when they are in middleschool and highschool. Honestly, I cannot fathom dragging around every friend and acquaintance I've made with me through my entire life. There's a reason why you loose touch with most of your friends after highschool.
- phlux 16y ago
  >I just don't know about facebook, because they are company based on social interaction. The way we interact with each other on the internet changes often. That is the problem with their new messaging platform -- they are trying to mold the way we interact so as to keep users in their walled garden. This is a good, albeit spooky, move on their part. I wouldnt underestimate the strategery [sic] in this particular play -- especially given the assimilation of the recent goog defectors, including Maps and Wave creator.... This is not a short sighted effort on the part of FB. Sure, Zuck may have a lot of unlikeable qualities etc... but truly, he has done one thing better than any entrepreneur with the same level of skill; surround himself with really really (really rich) good advisors.
- utefan001 16y ago
  Facebook is the rage not only for kids but for a lot of people. My friend is an ENT who works at the hospital. The running joke is the only way to get a nurse to know what you need them to do is to communicate with them on facebook.
anthuswilliams 16y ago
Sure it will. But the post isn't about which companies will survive. It's about which will win.

tedunangst 16y ago

It was only a few years ago that Google search was all the rage. :) There was a lot of turnover in search before Google. There was a lot of turnover in social sites before Facebook. So Facebook sticking around would not be unprecedented. All the failed giants of the past eventually fail, except the last one. On top of that, I think Facebook has innovated (ok, at least iterated) more frequently and intensely on their basic offering than nearly anybody. Compare with Google, where we went from search results with ads to search results plus 3 thumbnails with ads.

timdorr 16y ago

I beg to differ. MySpace had maybe 75 million users at peak. Facebook has 500 million active users right now and is growing. That's 25% of the total Internet population. And they have a smarter distribution strategy (those widgets are everywhere), making them harder to just disappear suddenly. It's certainly within the realm of possibility, but it's not likely for a long while.