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> Shouldn't the burden of proof should be on Forrester's model to prove that it is true? That's not really how models work. A model is a prediction about how
by Lazare 8y ago
> Shouldn't the burden of proof should be on Forrester's model to prove that it is true?
That's not really how models work. A model is a prediction about how the world works; you can't prove them true. Even if my model of wheat harvests or global warming or city growth, or stock mark volatility works for the past 10 years in backtests, and worked this year, it doesn't mean it'll work next year.
It's like machine learning; you can't prove it's going to give you the right answers going forward; all you can do is see if it gave you the right answers so far, and hope for the best.