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A couple of things I found interesting in this document, speaking as someone working in quantitative trading over 35 years later - 1. Baum and Simons started b
by avvt4avaw 8y ago
A couple of things I found interesting in this document, speaking as someone working in quantitative trading over 35 years later -
1. Baum and Simons started by using a momentum strategy to trade currencies, years before this was commonly done (it had been used to trade commodities for decades, but was only later applied to financial assets)
2. As well as momentum, they used a rudimentary value strategy ("a variety of line trading in which you sell or buy a currency according to whether it is to far above or below its line" and "I try to buy cheap and sell expensive")
3. At least according to this document, they don't seem to have engaged in carry trading (taking advantage of interest differentials in different currencies)
4. They at least considered the impact of macroeconomic variables, albeit in a somewhat ad-hoc and non-systematic way.
Despite starting out with a momentum strategy, Baum didn't seem to subscribe to the most common paraphrase of momentum trading, which is to "cut your losses short and let your winners run on", as evidenced by his statements that "I will hold positions both losing and winning for a very long time" and "I hate to sell in a falling market" and "I am courageous in losing positions holding on and sometimes enlarging them". I would characterize him as more of a value trader than a momentum trader.
It was only realized decades later (in the 1990s and early 2000s) that value and momentum strategies were particularly powerful in combination, and this only became part of the academic record in 2013 or so.
- jeffreyrogers 8y ago> Baum didn't seem to subscribe to the most common paraphrase of momentum trading, which is to "cut your losses short and let your winners run on" I don't have a source for it that I can find at the moment, but I recently read a paper showing that this advice is actually quite bad and traders perform better when they do the opposite. (They sell losers too early (when they would have recovered) and they sell winners too late (after they've declined)) Of course, prospectively knowing you're selling losers to early or winners to late is hard to do.
- scottlocklin 8y agoSuch a study is practically inevitable. Studies generally need central tendency to be statistically significant. Long trends are kind of by necessity outliers. Both are valid and depend on your modeling and time horizon. But if you can find a simple statistical alpha which has more examples, you're probably better off doing that. Which is why HFT was so profitable.