3 ms·

Well page 6 is missing, but this is a very interesting historical document nevertheless.

wolfhumble 8y ago
Looks like the ink from page 6 has bled over to page 5, so if you have time you might decipher the original content. :-)
- qrybam 8y ago
  great idea - transcribed in reply to parent
qrybam 8y ago
Gave it a stab, anything with ? were (for me) illegible characters: I was aided in this action by (1) my personal estimates for very weak economic statistics for January to be reported in February which others had to varying degrees of certainty, (2) careful attention to what Volcker said (3) my ?????? aris- ing from careful reading of various components of the money supply statistics that there was a largely technical explana- tion for the rapid M1 growth - the other checkable deposits component was growing disproportionately (4) my carry tenta- tive observation that the treasury one way or the other was collecting more money than expected which was later confirmed by the treasury reducing the supply of treasury bills offered. Two years ago, I would not have been able to do some of these things at all and some not as well since I did not have the relevant knowledge. I now have a large amount of financial knowledge and monitor many financial and economic releases and cost sheets. However, since everyone has the same figures available to him and some people actually read them, one wonders how you can make money in this way. In previous years, I made money in financial futures in a non ??????lly way once as described to you in a previous ?ess ? talk by observing that the winter weather was good and selling bonds and bills short under the hypothesis that the economy would not slow up as many economists expected at the time so long as the weather was good. On another occasion I bought treasury bills because of a misallocation of supplies of gasoline causing lines to form at stations under the hypothesis that if Americans could not conveniently use their cars then the economy would slow down. Of course everyone else knows about the weather and gasoline lines. Here is a list of some of my trading characteristics: 1. I don't take actions except for specific reasons - a news item, a prediction I have of forthcoming data etc. Usually I will have several reasons 2 - 15 say for assuming a new position. edit: some words
- hristov 8y ago
  Wow, thanks! This is really helpful, thanks for taking the time to decipher this.

Looks like the ink from page 6 has bled over to page 5, so if you have time you might decipher the original content. :-)

qrybam 8y ago
great idea - transcribed in reply to parent

qrybam 8y ago

Gave it a stab, anything with ? were (for me) illegible characters: I was aided in this action by (1) my personal estimates for very weak economic statistics for January to be reported in February which others had to varying degrees of certainty, (2) careful attention to what Volcker said (3) my ?????? aris- ing from careful reading of various components of the money supply statistics that there was a largely technical explana- tion for the rapid M1 growth - the other checkable deposits component was growing disproportionately (4) my carry tenta- tive observation that the treasury one way or the other was collecting more money than expected which was later confirmed by the treasury reducing the supply of treasury bills offered. Two years ago, I would not have been able to do some of these things at all and some not as well since I did not have the relevant knowledge. I now have a large amount of financial knowledge and monitor many financial and economic releases and cost sheets. However, since everyone has the same figures available to him and some people actually read them, one wonders how you can make money in this way. In previous years, I made money in financial futures in a non ??????lly way once as described to you in a previous ?ess ? talk by observing that the winter weather was good and selling bonds and bills short under the hypothesis that the economy would not slow up as many economists expected at the time so long as the weather was good. On another occasion I bought treasury bills because of a misallocation of supplies of gasoline causing lines to form at stations under the hypothesis that if Americans could not conveniently use their cars then the economy would slow down. Of course everyone else knows about the weather and gasoline lines. Here is a list of some of my trading characteristics: 1. I don't take actions except for specific reasons - a news item, a prediction I have of forthcoming data etc. Usually I will have several reasons 2 - 15 say for assuming a new position. edit: some words

hristov 8y ago
Wow, thanks! This is really helpful, thanks for taking the time to decipher this.