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The whole point of a complicated economic system is to put up with all that precisely because every one gets to have a good job, spouse, kids, nice place to liv

by VLM 8y ago

The whole point of a complicated economic system is to put up with all that precisely because every one gets to have a good job, spouse, kids, nice place to live. And its worked pretty well until lately. The only outcome of failure is substantial real change, war/imperialism/colonialism, collapse, or revolution. Some argue that retreat into religion has historically resulted. Looking at the modern situation, we seem to be retreating into tech-assisted virtue signalling as our religious retreat. Sounds bizarre to make an argument that facebook or tumblr might be delaying cultural collapse by a decade or two in some areas, but I have read stuff like that. Not talking about Japan specifically, this is basic human history and archeology stuff. People can, have, and will put up with anything as long as it "works" for them, and when it no longer works, that's the end of that civilization's business model. Historically speaking, nothing quite says "war and revolution" like a large and growing population of angry young men who were promised the world if they cooperated and now they're getting nothing.

michaelt 8y ago
I've heard the angry-young-men-cause-political-instability argument before - but this is the first time I've seen it applied to young men locking themselves in their bedrooms. To participate in war and revolution don't you have to, you know, leave the house?
- VLM 8y ago
  Oh I'd agree with you and extend your remarks such that we're unlikely to see a large scale WW2 re-enactment but rebels gotta rebel and you don't need a job or a girlfriend to vote. I would argue that two effects might invalidate the claim against warfare. Human labor has been reduced in warfare, and democracy abstracts personal responsibility from decisionmaking. For example, 5M dudes in their moms basement could vote, while remaining in their moms basement and never reaching the front lines, to extend the near shooting war between China jet fighters and Japanese recon planes that happened a couple years ago over that recently discovered East China Sea natural gas field. The kids will never personally fight unless something goes horribly wrong, and if the Japanese win, the kids will never work on offshore natgas platforms, but the economic effects of all those petro-dollars would raise all the boats in the entire country, such that 5M kids might get work at home or even salaryman jobs eventually leading to house, wife, and kids, and I bet a politician could court 5M or so votes using that logic. Politicians always seek power regardless of long term outcome. I mean, WRT the incident from 2014, we're not talking about hikki kids volunteering to personally fight in the jungle, all they have to do is tend to vote for people who tend to support a couple air force pilots being somewhat more aggressive than usual. A similar dude with a job, wife, young kids, house, is not going to risk a war with China over some natgas fields and is not going to vote for a warmonger strategy politician. A kid kicked out of society because their isn't space in society for him anymore, has literally nothing to lose and everything to gain at the ballot box. People who acquire the carrot on a stick are inherently small C conservative, and people kicked out of society's lifeboat are inherently rebellious, so its not even a simple binary thing of war or no war, its more an issue where political instability gets an automatic plus 5M points, which will lead to globally crazier outcomes than having zero additional automatic points. Society failing kids by not delivering promises from national mythologies is a national security threat and a threat to global peace. Naturally of course everyone's gonna blame the kids and parents which is not going to fix anything, and if anything will just radicalize them further. "I thought I followed all the rules and didn't get what I was promised so I was just unlucky or they slightly disliked me, but turns out they hate me, so F them all lets nuke China and take their resources". And of course with a growing population around the world of the dispossessed and lied to, this is going to be a huge mess.
- sandworm101 8y ago
  >> To participate in war and revolution don't you have to, you know, leave the house? 2016. One can very effectively wage a "war" through social media. Hacking aside, any angry young man (or woman) with an internet connection can foment serious change. He can get people out on the streets. He can trigger violence.

by VLM 8y ago

michaelt 8y ago

I've heard the angry-young-men-cause-political-instability argument before - but this is the first time I've seen it applied to young men locking themselves in their bedrooms. To participate in war and revolution don't you have to, you know, leave the house?

VLM 8y ago
Oh I'd agree with you and extend your remarks such that we're unlikely to see a large scale WW2 re-enactment but rebels gotta rebel and you don't need a job or a girlfriend to vote. I would argue that two effects might invalidate the claim against warfare. Human labor has been reduced in warfare, and democracy abstracts personal responsibility from decisionmaking. For example, 5M dudes in their moms basement could vote, while remaining in their moms basement and never reaching the front lines, to extend the near shooting war between China jet fighters and Japanese recon planes that happened a couple years ago over that recently discovered East China Sea natural gas field. The kids will never personally fight unless something goes horribly wrong, and if the Japanese win, the kids will never work on offshore natgas platforms, but the economic effects of all those petro-dollars would raise all the boats in the entire country, such that 5M kids might get work at home or even salaryman jobs eventually leading to house, wife, and kids, and I bet a politician could court 5M or so votes using that logic. Politicians always seek power regardless of long term outcome. I mean, WRT the incident from 2014, we're not talking about hikki kids volunteering to personally fight in the jungle, all they have to do is tend to vote for people who tend to support a couple air force pilots being somewhat more aggressive than usual. A similar dude with a job, wife, young kids, house, is not going to risk a war with China over some natgas fields and is not going to vote for a warmonger strategy politician. A kid kicked out of society because their isn't space in society for him anymore, has literally nothing to lose and everything to gain at the ballot box. People who acquire the carrot on a stick are inherently small C conservative, and people kicked out of society's lifeboat are inherently rebellious, so its not even a simple binary thing of war or no war, its more an issue where political instability gets an automatic plus 5M points, which will lead to globally crazier outcomes than having zero additional automatic points. Society failing kids by not delivering promises from national mythologies is a national security threat and a threat to global peace. Naturally of course everyone's gonna blame the kids and parents which is not going to fix anything, and if anything will just radicalize them further. "I thought I followed all the rules and didn't get what I was promised so I was just unlucky or they slightly disliked me, but turns out they hate me, so F them all lets nuke China and take their resources". And of course with a growing population around the world of the dispossessed and lied to, this is going to be a huge mess.
sandworm101 8y ago
>> To participate in war and revolution don't you have to, you know, leave the house? 2016. One can very effectively wage a "war" through social media. Hacking aside, any angry young man (or woman) with an internet connection can foment serious change. He can get people out on the streets. He can trigger violence.