The data shows that the global economy is entering a recession, and the US bull market run is over. Consider that within 4 years, if your company hasn't produce

The data shows that the global economy is entering a recession, and the US bull market run is over. Consider that within 4 years, if your company hasn't produced a significant profit/cashflow, it may be hard to raise another round. Not sure what probabilities you used, but the probabilistic outcome using a sample size of 'all startups that raise money', is probably to take the money and not the shares.