Howdy from across the pond! To be honest, I have almost no experience forecasting for Europe so sadly I cant help too much with the specifics. You are right pre

Howdy from across the pond! To be honest, I have almost no experience forecasting for Europe so sadly I cant help too much with the specifics. You are right predicting rainfall at small scale is very hard. I know that here in the midwest, we never have any days where the forecast at 5am says 'all sunny and zero chance of rain', and then randomly a huge thunderstorm pops up. The atmopshere just doesnt work that way. People get upset about probabilities of rainfall and all that. Just think of the model perspective. The model sees square grid cells that are many KM apart. If the storm shifts from one grid cell to the next one, not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. However if you live in that grid cell, your forecast just changed from getting dumped on to clear skies (or vice versa).