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I get the feeling that this "hyper-local" mentality contributed to NYC and surrounding areas being caught flat-footed by the first-of-season snowfall at the end

I get the feeling that this "hyper-local" mentality contributed to NYC and surrounding areas being caught flat-footed by the first-of-season snowfall at the end of last year. I have little understanding of meteorology, but it was clear, just from the forecast maps, that a small change in the location and timing of the rain/snow line would make a big difference to the outcome, and that something more than was forecast was a distinct possibility. As with many things, having a little understanding of the big picture can help you get more out of weather forecasts.

scott_s 8y ago
That snowfall last year was bizarre. We all knew it was going to happen - I remember thinking days in advance that I would probably leave work early. So I'm not sure why there was no salt on the roads in the NY area.
brootstrap 8y ago
Your last statement is the so true. An amateur forecaster can spend ten minutes looking at the some big picture (synoptic scale) weather and know regional trends (this part of country is dry, these guys are wet, humid etc). This would be a pressure & wind map, showing location of high/lows, maybe some 850mb moisture charts too... But you are painting broad strokes. All of these dumbos on HN want to know exactly when the rain is going to hit your exact location, or you have to be within 3 degrees C modeling the surface temperature of my street so i can either ride my bike or not. We just cant do that with the current science & computational landscape! After you have the synoptic scale picture, then you zoom in on your target area and get specific if you want to. This local expertise is where you NWS office comes into play. You want the local forecast from these guys!
- labster 8y ago
  It's not that, it's selective memory. Everyone remembers the blown forecasts. Even I do. Three or four years back NWS predicted a big Christmas storm in SoCal, but the damn cut-off didn't come on shore, and the resulting offshore flow made the day nice and warm. And, Americans only: if you forecast temperatures of 99°F and the observed temperature is 97°, good job. But if the observed temperature is 100°, then you made a huge mistake. People need to know when you hit the century mark!

scott_s 8y ago

That snowfall last year was bizarre. We all knew it was going to happen - I remember thinking days in advance that I would probably leave work early. So I'm not sure why there was no salt on the roads in the NY area.

brootstrap 8y ago

Your last statement is the so true. An amateur forecaster can spend ten minutes looking at the some big picture (synoptic scale) weather and know regional trends (this part of country is dry, these guys are wet, humid etc). This would be a pressure & wind map, showing location of high/lows, maybe some 850mb moisture charts too... But you are painting broad strokes. All of these dumbos on HN want to know exactly when the rain is going to hit your exact location, or you have to be within 3 degrees C modeling the surface temperature of my street so i can either ride my bike or not. We just cant do that with the current science & computational landscape! After you have the synoptic scale picture, then you zoom in on your target area and get specific if you want to. This local expertise is where you NWS office comes into play. You want the local forecast from these guys!

labster 8y ago
It's not that, it's selective memory. Everyone remembers the blown forecasts. Even I do. Three or four years back NWS predicted a big Christmas storm in SoCal, but the damn cut-off didn't come on shore, and the resulting offshore flow made the day nice and warm. And, Americans only: if you forecast temperatures of 99°F and the observed temperature is 97°, good job. But if the observed temperature is 100°, then you made a huge mistake. People need to know when you hit the century mark!