8 ms·

"While any magnetic-field flip would still be thousands of years away...". Sneaky sentence right at the end. Sure the last one happened 700,000 years ago, so it

"While any magnetic-field flip would still be thousands of years away...". Sneaky sentence right at the end. Sure the last one happened 700,000 years ago, so it is "soon", the but article made it sound like it was happening tomorrow!

AznHisoka 8y ago
It's like those articles that hedge their outrageous predictions. "Facebook is probably going to be supplanted in 5 years, but then again they own Instagram and WhatsApp, so they might be fine". What is it going to be, Nostradamus?!
- virgilp 8y ago
  It's either going to be supplanted, or it won't be. There is no third option. You're welcome.
  - elbrian 8y ago
    You seem confused. No one implied that there was a third option.
  - stcredzero 8y ago
    False. Facebook could retain all the Boomers, but coexist for awhile with other social media dominating the millennial market.
    - Izkata 8y ago
      I wonder why this is downvoted... MySpace and Facebook coexisted in a very similar dynamic for several years before Facebook opened to everyone.
lb1lf 8y ago
Discussing an unstable mountainous area with a geologist once, he made it sound like collapse was imminent, so I asked him when to expect it. "Oh, any day, now - definitely in the next 50,000 years or so..."
- cowboybeboop 8y ago
  And you are just telling me now?
- magduf 8y ago
  That's the problem with geology like that: the collapse really could happen next week, or not for another 10,000 years.
- justinator 8y ago
  On the flip side: "Geologic Time includes Now"
qrbLPHiKpiux 8y ago
Soon in space-time does mean hundreds of thousands of years. The masses do not appreciate this, respectfully.
- balabaster 8y ago
  Not even in space time. If you consider the age of this planet, hundreds of thousands of years is still a tiny slice of time - especially given that even if you accommodate the possibility that humans have been around possibly only for a few hundred thousand years, in the grand scheme of the 4.53 billion years of existence of earth if reports are considered accurate, it's a blip on the radar, we barely even existed.
  - starlig-ht 8y ago
    And we have only gained the knowledge of this as a species within the last hundred years.
dugluak 8y ago
They don't understand the implications. There are many people who take this seriously and dig holes underground, spend thousands of dollars to prepare themselves for the D day ....
- darkpuma 8y ago
  I'm stockpiling orgonite right now to protect my family. When the magnetic poles flip that stuff is going to be worth it's weight in gold!
  - iamthepieman 8y ago
    That was a rabbit hole i did not need to spend the last 30 minutes on. For those who don't have the time like I didn't Organite is a substance made of resin metals and quartz that balances and harmonizes Bio-energy (known as orgone). Orgone is analogous to chi or prana and is a type of bio-energy that reverses the effect of entropy[0] It seems to be a mix of crystal healing and EMF grounding (also known as earthing) It can: - Neutralizes emf radiation. - Clears negative energy. - Aids in meditation. - Supports restful sleep. - Enhances lucid dreaming. - Relieves stress. - Purifies the living area. - Can detoxify water. It is, of course, completely bogus. [0]If your theory is found to be against the second law of theromodynamics, I give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation. - Arthur Eddington
    - Diederich 8y ago
      > It is, of course, completely bogus. So sure are you, hmmm??
      - westmeal 8y ago
        Try putting that rock in toxic water and drink it and we'll see what happens.
        VRay 8y ago
legohead 8y ago
Betteridge's law of headlines: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." If we were pretty certain this was going to actually happen, the article would be: The Pole is flipping soon! Here's what you need to know. etc
- luma 8y ago
  When dealing with geologists and cosmologists, 1000 years is the textbook definition of "soon".
  - throwawaymath 8y ago
    Quite right. In fact on geological and cosmological timescales, "in 1000 years" essentially means, "momentarily." The modern measurements which underpin this observation have interesting parallels to the Vedic timekeeping of the Upanishads. Barely a (Brahma) day has passed since the beginning of the universe, and orders of magnitude more time must pass before Vishnu will blink for the first time :)
ChuckMcM 8y ago
There are a couple of issues here and it is important to be careful about not conflating them. One, is the question of "how long" does a flip take? There is some evidence that it can take as few as 100 years[1], the previous consensus estimate (2004) was about 7000 years[2]. That is important because the faster it happens the more havoc it is likely to cause. If it happens over thousands of years then humans will adapt to a 'non constant' compass direction and find other ways to navigate. For example, GPS 'north' which can always point you to 0,0 on the globe. The second thing is the timing. The pole is currently "racing" towards Siberia[3], so it may have already started flipping. At 30 miles a year it would take 416 years to fully flip. That is well within the 7000 year window and only 4x the 100 year window. It is one of the more interesting confounding influences on climate change as changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation can change the amount of energy that makes it into the atmosphere from the Sun. That works both ways, either reducing the energy (more charged particles deflected) making it colder or increasing the energy (more charged particles impact the atmosphere) making it warmer. [1] https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/10/14/earths-magnetic-field-could-flip-within-a-human-lifetime/ https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/10/14/earths-magnetic-field-c... [2] https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100358 https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100358 [3] https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/magnetic-north-shifting-by-40-miles-a-year-might-signal-pole-r https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/ma...
- njarboe 8y ago
  Previous estimates on the time it takes for a flip to happen are in the 1000-30000 year range[1]. That paper gives a 7000 yr average but the variance on the time it takes is likely large. The Berkeley article you linked to is on this paper[2] which makes a claim of that short flipping time. People in the field think it is quite an unlikely short period of time for a flip and we would need more evidence to firmly believe they can happen this fast. Sediments are notoriously complicated on how they record the magnetic field and the rates at which they are deposited at are difficult to determine. Source: I did my PhD work on the Steens Mountain reversal. It is the Earth's reversal with the most transitional directions recorded in much more reliable volcanic rocks. This was possible because of the huge volume of the Columbia River Basalts that were erupting at that time around 16.7 million years ago. Unfortunately it happened so long ago that direct radioactive dating of its length is impossible with current methods. [1]https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02459 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02459 [2]https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu287 https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu287

AznHisoka 8y ago

It's like those articles that hedge their outrageous predictions. "Facebook is probably going to be supplanted in 5 years, but then again they own Instagram and WhatsApp, so they might be fine". What is it going to be, Nostradamus?!

virgilp 8y ago
It's either going to be supplanted, or it won't be. There is no third option. You're welcome.
- elbrian 8y ago
  You seem confused. No one implied that there was a third option.
- stcredzero 8y ago
  False. Facebook could retain all the Boomers, but coexist for awhile with other social media dominating the millennial market.
  - Izkata 8y ago
    I wonder why this is downvoted... MySpace and Facebook coexisted in a very similar dynamic for several years before Facebook opened to everyone.

lb1lf 8y ago

Discussing an unstable mountainous area with a geologist once, he made it sound like collapse was imminent, so I asked him when to expect it. "Oh, any day, now - definitely in the next 50,000 years or so..."

cowboybeboop 8y ago
And you are just telling me now?
magduf 8y ago
That's the problem with geology like that: the collapse really could happen next week, or not for another 10,000 years.
justinator 8y ago
On the flip side: "Geologic Time includes Now"

qrbLPHiKpiux 8y ago

Soon in space-time does mean hundreds of thousands of years. The masses do not appreciate this, respectfully.

balabaster 8y ago
Not even in space time. If you consider the age of this planet, hundreds of thousands of years is still a tiny slice of time - especially given that even if you accommodate the possibility that humans have been around possibly only for a few hundred thousand years, in the grand scheme of the 4.53 billion years of existence of earth if reports are considered accurate, it's a blip on the radar, we barely even existed.
- starlig-ht 8y ago
  And we have only gained the knowledge of this as a species within the last hundred years.

dugluak 8y ago

They don't understand the implications. There are many people who take this seriously and dig holes underground, spend thousands of dollars to prepare themselves for the D day ....

darkpuma 8y ago
I'm stockpiling orgonite right now to protect my family. When the magnetic poles flip that stuff is going to be worth it's weight in gold!
- iamthepieman 8y ago
  That was a rabbit hole i did not need to spend the last 30 minutes on. For those who don't have the time like I didn't Organite is a substance made of resin metals and quartz that balances and harmonizes Bio-energy (known as orgone). Orgone is analogous to chi or prana and is a type of bio-energy that reverses the effect of entropy[0] It seems to be a mix of crystal healing and EMF grounding (also known as earthing) It can: - Neutralizes emf radiation. - Clears negative energy. - Aids in meditation. - Supports restful sleep. - Enhances lucid dreaming. - Relieves stress. - Purifies the living area. - Can detoxify water. It is, of course, completely bogus. [0]If your theory is found to be against the second law of theromodynamics, I give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation. - Arthur Eddington
  - Diederich 8y ago
    > It is, of course, completely bogus. So sure are you, hmmm??
    - westmeal 8y ago
      Try putting that rock in toxic water and drink it and we'll see what happens.
      - VRay 8y ago

legohead 8y ago

Betteridge's law of headlines: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no." If we were pretty certain this was going to actually happen, the article would be: The Pole is flipping soon! Here's what you need to know. etc

luma 8y ago
When dealing with geologists and cosmologists, 1000 years is the textbook definition of "soon".
- throwawaymath 8y ago
  Quite right. In fact on geological and cosmological timescales, "in 1000 years" essentially means, "momentarily." The modern measurements which underpin this observation have interesting parallels to the Vedic timekeeping of the Upanishads. Barely a (Brahma) day has passed since the beginning of the universe, and orders of magnitude more time must pass before Vishnu will blink for the first time :)

ChuckMcM 8y ago

There are a couple of issues here and it is important to be careful about not conflating them. One, is the question of "how long" does a flip take? There is some evidence that it can take as few as 100 years[1], the previous consensus estimate (2004) was about 7000 years[2]. That is important because the faster it happens the more havoc it is likely to cause. If it happens over thousands of years then humans will adapt to a 'non constant' compass direction and find other ways to navigate. For example, GPS 'north' which can always point you to 0,0 on the globe. The second thing is the timing. The pole is currently "racing" towards Siberia[3], so it may have already started flipping. At 30 miles a year it would take 416 years to fully flip. That is well within the 7000 year window and only 4x the 100 year window. It is one of the more interesting confounding influences on climate change as changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation can change the amount of energy that makes it into the atmosphere from the Sun. That works both ways, either reducing the energy (more charged particles deflected) making it colder or increasing the energy (more charged particles impact the atmosphere) making it warmer. [1] https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/10/14/earths-magnetic-field-could-flip-within-a-human-lifetime/ https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/10/14/earths-magnetic-field-c... [2] https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100358 https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100358 [3] https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/magnetic-north-shifting-by-40-miles-a-year-might-signal-pole-r https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/ma...

njarboe 8y ago
Previous estimates on the time it takes for a flip to happen are in the 1000-30000 year range[1]. That paper gives a 7000 yr average but the variance on the time it takes is likely large. The Berkeley article you linked to is on this paper[2] which makes a claim of that short flipping time. People in the field think it is quite an unlikely short period of time for a flip and we would need more evidence to firmly believe they can happen this fast. Sediments are notoriously complicated on how they record the magnetic field and the rates at which they are deposited at are difficult to determine. Source: I did my PhD work on the Steens Mountain reversal. It is the Earth's reversal with the most transitional directions recorded in much more reliable volcanic rocks. This was possible because of the huge volume of the Columbia River Basalts that were erupting at that time around 16.7 million years ago. Unfortunately it happened so long ago that direct radioactive dating of its length is impossible with current methods. [1]https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02459 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02459 [2]https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu287 https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu287