4 ms·

I worked outside every day for 4 years at least. Weather forecasts are so unreliable I stopped listening. I had better luck trying to figure out if i'd need rai

I worked outside every day for 4 years at least. Weather forecasts are so unreliable I stopped listening. I had better luck trying to figure out if i'd need rain gear in a day by just waking up and looking out the window in the morning than looking up or listening to a weather forecast. You really start to notice how wrong they are when you spend every day outside. I don't notice any more working inside again. But when you rely on weather forecasts everyday to figure out how miserable you're going to be in a day...you really notice..they might as well just be making things up half the time.

bainsfather 8y ago
Similar experience in the uk, in terms of whether it will rain or not. 3 hour, 6 hour etc forecasts are of little use - no better than looking out the window. Meanwhile wind speed and temperature seem ok on that timescale, but are (usually) less important to me than precipitation. It depends a lot on what part of the world you are in - I think that the uk is particularly hard to forecast.
brootstrap 8y ago
Hmmm. If you are needing down to the minute accurate timing of when rain is going to start & stop, sure nobody can predict that, for every location in the USA, all the time. I have to question where you are getting your weather forecast information??? I am a bachelor degree meteorologist, I dont use any apps that try to be 'hyper local' (omg i hate that word, it is the weather version of AI/ML hype). Just go to the government site www.weather.gov We can't predict exactly when it will rain, but we can get daily trends pretty good for 3-5 days out. This means you are five days ahead of the weather. You cant know "it will rain from 5:00am to 9:30am on february 4th, 2019". But you can know if we have a synoptic scale system that is moving through your area on that day, and know if there is a probability of rain. Where do you work everyday outside? i would be happy to give you a 5 - 10 day forecast right now actually and can tell you it will be good. I am supposed to be writing some tests and documentation but i can drop some WX knowledge if you need.
- mannykannot 8y ago
  I get the feeling that this "hyper-local" mentality contributed to NYC and surrounding areas being caught flat-footed by the first-of-season snowfall at the end of last year. I have little understanding of meteorology, but it was clear, just from the forecast maps, that a small change in the location and timing of the rain/snow line would make a big difference to the outcome, and that something more than was forecast was a distinct possibility. As with many things, having a little understanding of the big picture can help you get more out of weather forecasts.
  - scott_s 8y ago
    That snowfall last year was bizarre. We all knew it was going to happen - I remember thinking days in advance that I would probably leave work early. So I'm not sure why there was no salt on the roads in the NY area.
  - brootstrap 8y ago
    Your last statement is the so true. An amateur forecaster can spend ten minutes looking at the some big picture (synoptic scale) weather and know regional trends (this part of country is dry, these guys are wet, humid etc). This would be a pressure & wind map, showing location of high/lows, maybe some 850mb moisture charts too... But you are painting broad strokes. All of these dumbos on HN want to know exactly when the rain is going to hit your exact location, or you have to be within 3 degrees C modeling the surface temperature of my street so i can either ride my bike or not. We just cant do that with the current science & computational landscape! After you have the synoptic scale picture, then you zoom in on your target area and get specific if you want to. This local expertise is where you NWS office comes into play. You want the local forecast from these guys!
    - labster 8y ago
      It's not that, it's selective memory. Everyone remembers the blown forecasts. Even I do. Three or four years back NWS predicted a big Christmas storm in SoCal, but the damn cut-off didn't come on shore, and the resulting offshore flow made the day nice and warm. And, Americans only: if you forecast temperatures of 99°F and the observed temperature is 97°, good job. But if the observed temperature is 100°, then you made a huge mistake. People need to know when you hit the century mark!

bainsfather 8y ago

Similar experience in the uk, in terms of whether it will rain or not. 3 hour, 6 hour etc forecasts are of little use - no better than looking out the window. Meanwhile wind speed and temperature seem ok on that timescale, but are (usually) less important to me than precipitation. It depends a lot on what part of the world you are in - I think that the uk is particularly hard to forecast.

brootstrap 8y ago

Hmmm. If you are needing down to the minute accurate timing of when rain is going to start & stop, sure nobody can predict that, for every location in the USA, all the time. I have to question where you are getting your weather forecast information??? I am a bachelor degree meteorologist, I dont use any apps that try to be 'hyper local' (omg i hate that word, it is the weather version of AI/ML hype). Just go to the government site www.weather.gov We can't predict exactly when it will rain, but we can get daily trends pretty good for 3-5 days out. This means you are five days ahead of the weather. You cant know "it will rain from 5:00am to 9:30am on february 4th, 2019". But you can know if we have a synoptic scale system that is moving through your area on that day, and know if there is a probability of rain. Where do you work everyday outside? i would be happy to give you a 5 - 10 day forecast right now actually and can tell you it will be good. I am supposed to be writing some tests and documentation but i can drop some WX knowledge if you need.

mannykannot 8y ago
I get the feeling that this "hyper-local" mentality contributed to NYC and surrounding areas being caught flat-footed by the first-of-season snowfall at the end of last year. I have little understanding of meteorology, but it was clear, just from the forecast maps, that a small change in the location and timing of the rain/snow line would make a big difference to the outcome, and that something more than was forecast was a distinct possibility. As with many things, having a little understanding of the big picture can help you get more out of weather forecasts.
- scott_s 8y ago
  That snowfall last year was bizarre. We all knew it was going to happen - I remember thinking days in advance that I would probably leave work early. So I'm not sure why there was no salt on the roads in the NY area.
- brootstrap 8y ago
  Your last statement is the so true. An amateur forecaster can spend ten minutes looking at the some big picture (synoptic scale) weather and know regional trends (this part of country is dry, these guys are wet, humid etc). This would be a pressure & wind map, showing location of high/lows, maybe some 850mb moisture charts too... But you are painting broad strokes. All of these dumbos on HN want to know exactly when the rain is going to hit your exact location, or you have to be within 3 degrees C modeling the surface temperature of my street so i can either ride my bike or not. We just cant do that with the current science & computational landscape! After you have the synoptic scale picture, then you zoom in on your target area and get specific if you want to. This local expertise is where you NWS office comes into play. You want the local forecast from these guys!
  - labster 8y ago
    It's not that, it's selective memory. Everyone remembers the blown forecasts. Even I do. Three or four years back NWS predicted a big Christmas storm in SoCal, but the damn cut-off didn't come on shore, and the resulting offshore flow made the day nice and warm. And, Americans only: if you forecast temperatures of 99°F and the observed temperature is 97°, good job. But if the observed temperature is 100°, then you made a huge mistake. People need to know when you hit the century mark!