4 ms·

This might be an unpopular opinion, but the Amazon example is bad. Bezos didn't get "richer than God" by making a bookstore -- this is just grossly misleading.

by dvt 8y ago

This might be an unpopular opinion, but the Amazon example is bad. Bezos didn't get "richer than God" by making a bookstore -- this is just grossly misleading. AWS and Prime (both criticized upon release; Prime lost money for years) are the two main reasons Amazon took over the world. Amazon is a master class in pivoting and trial and error. Sometimes it loses (Fire Phone), but when it wins, it wins big.

hammock 8y ago
Just as "make a bookstore" isn't the key to success, I don't believe you can say "pivot a lot" or "trial and error" is the key to success either. Plenty of startups pivot and run out of runway. So what then is the secret sauce?
- dvt 8y ago
  True, this is a good point. The key to startup success is probably the same as the key to winning at Poker: win more than you lose :) Although I guess my point was just that I don't think Bezos thought that being a book salesman would make him a billionaire (as the article implies).
- eykanspelgud 8y ago
  Money. Lots of it.
- joshmarlow 8y ago
  My current thinking is that a big piece of success is taking risks and being able to absorb the losses. Generally big payouts don't come from a sure thing; you have to take multiple risks that could potentially have big payouts and survive long enough for one or more of them to pan-out. Edit: for formatting
- kbenson 8y ago
  Ruthlessly identify and pursue existing capabilities that are profitable or that capitalize on or provide unique or rare market capabilities (which you can later try to turn into profitable areas), and always been experimenting to find more.
- stareatgoats 8y ago
  >So what then is the secret sauce? Right time and place, luck, skill and money in varying relative quantities. People focus on the skills, not unimportant by all means, but it is not the secret sauce.
deleted 8y ago
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ykevinator 8y ago
And diversification
Barrin92 8y ago
also Thiel (at least as represented in the review here) seems to systemically understate the role of luck and environment. One contribution to Amazon's success was also the great culling of (potential) competitors after the dotcom burst. They were really lucky to rake in a 700 million investment barely a month before the crash, and most competitors afterwards had a hard time raising serious money. Now sure you can argue that there's strategies you can pick that maximise your chances of abusing these crashes, but they're very hard to predict and if they don't come you might lose out, and I don't think Bezos ever anticipated the dotcom bubble. So chance and timing really play a gigantic role in creating successful businesses, there are not always secrets or geniuses behind successful enterprise.

by dvt 8y ago

hammock 8y ago

Just as "make a bookstore" isn't the key to success, I don't believe you can say "pivot a lot" or "trial and error" is the key to success either. Plenty of startups pivot and run out of runway. So what then is the secret sauce?

dvt 8y ago
True, this is a good point. The key to startup success is probably the same as the key to winning at Poker: win more than you lose :) Although I guess my point was just that I don't think Bezos thought that being a book salesman would make him a billionaire (as the article implies).
eykanspelgud 8y ago
Money. Lots of it.
joshmarlow 8y ago
My current thinking is that a big piece of success is taking risks and being able to absorb the losses. Generally big payouts don't come from a sure thing; you have to take multiple risks that could potentially have big payouts and survive long enough for one or more of them to pan-out. Edit: for formatting
kbenson 8y ago
Ruthlessly identify and pursue existing capabilities that are profitable or that capitalize on or provide unique or rare market capabilities (which you can later try to turn into profitable areas), and always been experimenting to find more.
stareatgoats 8y ago
>So what then is the secret sauce? Right time and place, luck, skill and money in varying relative quantities. People focus on the skills, not unimportant by all means, but it is not the secret sauce.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

ykevinator 8y ago

And diversification

Barrin92 8y ago

also Thiel (at least as represented in the review here) seems to systemically understate the role of luck and environment. One contribution to Amazon's success was also the great culling of (potential) competitors after the dotcom burst. They were really lucky to rake in a 700 million investment barely a month before the crash, and most competitors afterwards had a hard time raising serious money. Now sure you can argue that there's strategies you can pick that maximise your chances of abusing these crashes, but they're very hard to predict and if they don't come you might lose out, and I don't think Bezos ever anticipated the dotcom bubble. So chance and timing really play a gigantic role in creating successful businesses, there are not always secrets or geniuses behind successful enterprise.