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> Monitoring tests on an ongoing basis and then calling them as soon as they hit some confidence threshold (like 95%) will give you biased results ... The Baye
by srean 8y ago
> Monitoring tests on an ongoing basis and then calling them as soon as they hit some confidence threshold (like 95%) will give you biased results ...
The Bayesian method doesn't really solves this as much it answers a fundamentally different question -- modeling how your personal belief changes. These typically will not have the interpretation as normalized long term frequency. As long as the Bayesian posteriors are not interpreted as frequentist probabilities, they are perfectly acceptable.
That said, this 'peeking' problem can be easily resolved in the frequentist setting and this is well known in stats, probability and hopefully ML literature. The core results are really old. In fact this was classified information during world war II. If you are interested, search for sequential hypothesis test. They are actually more efficient than their batch cousins.
Bayesian vs Frequentist is an orthogonal axis from sequential/online vs batch. Think of a 2 X 2 box, you can choose to be in any quadrant you want.