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While it may be possible take the frequentist approach to AB testing, Bayesian inference is becoming the way to go with this.[1] Instead of directly setting up
by montecarl 8y ago
While it may be possible take the frequentist approach to AB testing, Bayesian inference is becoming the way to go with this.[1] Instead of directly setting up a yes-no hypothesis test with the nearly impossible to use correctly p-values[2], Bayesian approaches aim to directly estimate whatever quantity you want. With the Bayesian approach, you get estimates for A, B, and A-B (or whatever combination you want, e.g. (A-B)/A). Each of those estimates are properly called posterior probability distributions and describe the range of possible values. The end result is that instead of saying "A is better than B (p < 0.05)" you get a probability distribution of A-B. From that probability distribution you can answer any question you want: the most likely difference between A and B (the average), the probability that A is better than B (just integrate the area above 0), or whatever is needed to make a decision.
[1] https://conversionxl.com/blog/bayesian-frequentist-ab-testing/ https://conversionxl.com/blog/bayesian-frequentist-ab-testin...
[2] https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/p-valuestatement.pdf https://www.amstat.org/asa/files/pdfs/p-valuestatement.pdf