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i think the answer is yes, it is avoided in the way that you demonstrate. i guess it's a matter of using an approach that reaches your audience. the book expla
by HillaryBriss 8y ago
i think the answer is yes, it is avoided in the way that you demonstrate. i guess it's a matter of using an approach that reaches your audience.
the book explains it with prose: Imagine 1,000 randomly selected women who choose to get mammograms. Eight of them (0.8%) have breast cancer. The mammogram correctly detects 90% of breast cancer cases, so about seven of the eight women will have their cancer discovered. However, there are 992 women without breast cancer, and 7% will get a false positive reading on their mammograms, giving us 70 women incorrectly told they have cancer. In total, we have 77 women with positive mammograms, 7 of whom actually have breast cancer. Only 9% of women with positive mammograms have breast cancer.
- vanderZwan 8y agoI know this is an example, but this assumes false positives and false negatives are equally likely, and I now am wondering if that is true in real life.
- janekm 8y agoIt doesn't: P(positive_mammogram | cancer) = 90% P(positive_mammogram | ~cancer) = 7%
- thaumasiotes 8y agoTo be a little clearer, the false negative rate is 10% and the false positive rate is 7%.