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Software engineers have a habit of assuming problems are more intuitive than they actually are. Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the

Software engineers have a habit of assuming problems are more intuitive than they actually are. Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. BLS estimates that the number of employed software engineers will go up 24% next year, that’s insane. Also, I’m not seeing this supposed depression in salaries. The median salary for a software engineer is 103k a year: https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/mobile/software-developers.htm https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/.... That number has been growing expontially in the last decade and a half. So there’s data that shows that engineers are getting hired more and paid more than ever before. I can’t find any to prove that H1Bs are dragging down salaries.

remarkEon 8y ago
>Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. Why is this? This sounds like a huge U.S. talent development problem. How does this visa change help to fix this issue? >I can’t find any to prove that H1Bs are dragging down salaries. The very fact that the number of employed software engineers is expected to go up by 24% in a single year is the evidence you're looking for that there is a massive supply distortion in the labor market.
- femiagbabiaka 8y ago
  > Why is this? This sounds like a huge U.S. talent development problem. How does this visa change help to fix this issue? It doesn’t, I’m against it. > The very fact that the number of employed software engineers is expected to go up by 24% in a single year is the evidence you're looking for that there is a massive supply distortion in the labor market. Yes... because the demand for software engineers is increasing every year and can’t keep up with supply.
  - remarkEon 8y ago
    >and can’t keep up with supply. yes...the very definition of a labor distortion that drives down wages.
    - femiagbabiaka 8y ago
      I feel like we can’t be reading the same thing. You’re saying that a market where there is more demand than supply is one where prices are lower? Again, I’m going to need a citation for that.
      - remarkEon 8y ago
        where did I say that prices are lower? I’m expressioning skepticism that a whopping 24% increase in hiring is due only to demand increases, which you heavily implied is the case. How much more would wages rise here if we weren’t artificially increasing the supply like this? We could certainly find out, if we wanted. But that would require some policy changes that are not popular to employers who are, incidentally, not interested in letting wages rise.
- luckydata 8y ago
  It makes for a good story but it's actually bullshit. There's no labor shortage in the sciences. There's just a shortage of companies willing to pay living wages. https://archives.cjr.org/reports/what_scientist_shortage.php https://archives.cjr.org/reports/what_scientist_shortage.php
OurBoysGirls1st 8y ago
>> Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. By "not enough engineers" I'm assuming you mean not enough engineers willing to work for so little they are forced to bunk with 3 roommates? I know plenty of engineers. Most dont want to work as SWEs because the median salary barely affords a studio apartment, especially after California taxes. Also, what about the 40+yr olds who are oddly purged from the workforce regularly. If there were a shortage, elderly workers would be retained, not purged in favor of cheaper, younger workers. Tons of engineers go into consulting, real estate, finance, etc because engineers simply dont make enough, especially given the SF/SV center-of-gravity of jobs. There isnt some magical shortage of workers. There is a shortage of workers willing to work for near subsistence wages [in SF/SV prices]

remarkEon 8y ago

>Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. Why is this? This sounds like a huge U.S. talent development problem. How does this visa change help to fix this issue? >I can’t find any to prove that H1Bs are dragging down salaries. The very fact that the number of employed software engineers is expected to go up by 24% in a single year is the evidence you're looking for that there is a massive supply distortion in the labor market.

femiagbabiaka 8y ago
> Why is this? This sounds like a huge U.S. talent development problem. How does this visa change help to fix this issue? It doesn’t, I’m against it. > The very fact that the number of employed software engineers is expected to go up by 24% in a single year is the evidence you're looking for that there is a massive supply distortion in the labor market. Yes... because the demand for software engineers is increasing every year and can’t keep up with supply.
- remarkEon 8y ago
  >and can’t keep up with supply. yes...the very definition of a labor distortion that drives down wages.
  - femiagbabiaka 8y ago
    I feel like we can’t be reading the same thing. You’re saying that a market where there is more demand than supply is one where prices are lower? Again, I’m going to need a citation for that.
    - remarkEon 8y ago
      where did I say that prices are lower? I’m expressioning skepticism that a whopping 24% increase in hiring is due only to demand increases, which you heavily implied is the case. How much more would wages rise here if we weren’t artificially increasing the supply like this? We could certainly find out, if we wanted. But that would require some policy changes that are not popular to employers who are, incidentally, not interested in letting wages rise.
luckydata 8y ago
It makes for a good story but it's actually bullshit. There's no labor shortage in the sciences. There's just a shortage of companies willing to pay living wages. https://archives.cjr.org/reports/what_scientist_shortage.php https://archives.cjr.org/reports/what_scientist_shortage.php

OurBoysGirls1st 8y ago

>> Even with H1B, there are literally not enough engineers in the Valley to saturate the demand from companies. By "not enough engineers" I'm assuming you mean not enough engineers willing to work for so little they are forced to bunk with 3 roommates? I know plenty of engineers. Most dont want to work as SWEs because the median salary barely affords a studio apartment, especially after California taxes. Also, what about the 40+yr olds who are oddly purged from the workforce regularly. If there were a shortage, elderly workers would be retained, not purged in favor of cheaper, younger workers. Tons of engineers go into consulting, real estate, finance, etc because engineers simply dont make enough, especially given the SF/SV center-of-gravity of jobs. There isnt some magical shortage of workers. There is a shortage of workers willing to work for near subsistence wages [in SF/SV prices]