In fairness, the stock market doesn't operate "like the stock market," if by that you mean reliably reward a value pick, either. The first order of business in

In fairness, the stock market doesn't operate "like the stock market," if by that you mean reliably reward a value pick, either. The first order of business in these things is certainly to spot the overlay/value pick/+EV situation. The second order of business is to manage bankroll/vol to be able to realize the EV over time -- but that is generally speaking much easier and more mechanical than the core insight of (repeatably) finding the EV...