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Exactly this. You also need to ensure that the underpriced bet actually wins or, if your strategy allows for it, places in the top 3. The odds on a place are ge

Exactly this. You also need to ensure that the underpriced bet actually wins or, if your strategy allows for it, places in the top 3. The odds on a place are generally too low to make this worth it though.

LiamPa 8y ago
Value is value, doesn’t matter if it wins, its all a numbers game.
- michaelscott 8y ago
  There's no payout if the horse doesn't win. It doesn't operate like the stock market.
  - retsibsi 8y ago
    He/she just means that if a bet is genuinely underpriced, the expected value of taking it will be positive. (So if you can reliably find these bets, you'll profit in the long run.) The odds reflect the horse's supposed chance of winning or placing (or whatever else it takes to get a payout), not its expected position -- so this isn't a case where you can be aware that the horse is underrated, but have no way to make a +EV bet on that knowledge.
    - LiamPa 8y ago
      Exactly, for example yesterday I placed over 5000 bets, not all of them won but as far as my strategies were concerned they were value and should therefore be in profit over the long term.
    - michaelscott 8y ago
      Yeah over the long term, but I thought this was already implied. All I'm saying is that "beating" other bettors is not enough to ensure success because of the means by which payouts are made. I suspect you feel this is also implied though, so I think we're probably on the same page.
  - rlucas 8y ago
    In fairness, the stock market doesn't operate "like the stock market," if by that you mean reliably reward a value pick, either. The first order of business in these things is certainly to spot the overlay/value pick/+EV situation. The second order of business is to manage bankroll/vol to be able to realize the EV over time -- but that is generally speaking much easier and more mechanical than the core insight of (repeatably) finding the EV...
  - mimixco 8y ago
    This is not correct, either. Horse racing allows bets on the second and third finishers, as well, not just the winner.

LiamPa 8y ago

Value is value, doesn’t matter if it wins, its all a numbers game.

michaelscott 8y ago
There's no payout if the horse doesn't win. It doesn't operate like the stock market.
- retsibsi 8y ago
  He/she just means that if a bet is genuinely underpriced, the expected value of taking it will be positive. (So if you can reliably find these bets, you'll profit in the long run.) The odds reflect the horse's supposed chance of winning or placing (or whatever else it takes to get a payout), not its expected position -- so this isn't a case where you can be aware that the horse is underrated, but have no way to make a +EV bet on that knowledge.
  - LiamPa 8y ago
    Exactly, for example yesterday I placed over 5000 bets, not all of them won but as far as my strategies were concerned they were value and should therefore be in profit over the long term.
  - michaelscott 8y ago
    Yeah over the long term, but I thought this was already implied. All I'm saying is that "beating" other bettors is not enough to ensure success because of the means by which payouts are made. I suspect you feel this is also implied though, so I think we're probably on the same page.
- rlucas 8y ago
  In fairness, the stock market doesn't operate "like the stock market," if by that you mean reliably reward a value pick, either. The first order of business in these things is certainly to spot the overlay/value pick/+EV situation. The second order of business is to manage bankroll/vol to be able to realize the EV over time -- but that is generally speaking much easier and more mechanical than the core insight of (repeatably) finding the EV...
- mimixco 8y ago
  This is not correct, either. Horse racing allows bets on the second and third finishers, as well, not just the winner.