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The reasoning all starts with the supposition that people can't know what the important questions are. Whether this is true strongly depends on what field you
by btilly 8y ago
The reasoning all starts with the supposition that people can't know what the important questions are. Whether this is true strongly depends on what field you are in.
Within a paradigm there will be agreement on what the important questions are. In any field of study with a shared paradigm, there will be rough agreement about what is important. The whole field may be wrong about that answer, but it is an answerable question.
How big an agreement is there?
Across math and the hard sciences, it turns out that not only does each subfield have its dominant paradigm, but people accept the paradigms in neighboring subfields, and overall paradigms across fields. Therefore when a result like the fact that neutrinos can flip types in flight was demonstrated, it was immediately recognized as important by all physicists, even ones in fields as far away as fluid mechanics.
This shows up in journals, where each little subfield has its own constellation of journals, with the best results going into a prominent journal that is shared across several subfields. And ditto at the next level, leading to a hierarchy that culminates in the most important journal of all, Nature. Which is where the most important results in all fields are announced.
This beautiful picture completely falls apart when you get out of math and the hard sciences. The problem is not that people are not doing scientific research, it is that the field hasn't agreed on a paradigm. The question of what the right approach is and what questions are important is a subject of debate, not agreement. Which immediately renders Hamming's advice questionable. Indeed this is so much true that the picture I have described is both obvious to someone who has worked in fields where there is such consensus, and sounds impossible to someone who works in fields where there isn't.
This shows up in a variety of ways. For example in journals, each school of thought has their own ranking of journals and they don't agree. Therefore no journal can ever attain the widely acknowledged prestige of top science journals. For another example, if you talk to two random psychologists about the 10 most important research results in psychology in the last 10 years, the one's list is unlikely to contain anything recognized by the other. However if you do the same with physics, the top results will have a lot of overlap. For example right now the top 10 list for both is likely to include the verification of the Higgs Boson, and the measurement of gravitational waves.
Anyways, long story short, I understand why this researcher would question our ability to know what questions are important. However for anyone in hard science, that is surprisingly achievable.
- milesvp 8y agoI think there's more to Hamming's advice than just parroting back what the consensus is in a given field though. Hamming did something that most people just don't do. He intentionally cross pollinated by having lunch with people in different academic disciplines. His harassing questions, "what's the biggest problem in your field?", and, "why aren't you working on it?", I think were first and foremost, meant to help him get a better idea of the broad strokes of the field in question (I'm sure he also got a certain amount of perverse pleasure in being a pest). But after that, if you look at how he writes about people's responses, I think he was also trying to get people to think about the big picture for themselves, and in this context, it doesn't really matter what your answer is to his questions, so long as you've given it some thought. His observation, that people who tended to give satisfactory answers later tended to have more prominent positions (I can't remember if he also said anything about the importance of their direct contributions), really just lends support to the idea that it's important to step back and keep the big picture in mind. He made similar observations when he talked about people who work with their doors open vs those who work with their doors closed. And that those who kept their doors closed tended to find themselves working their way towards irrelevance in their field, despite much greater short term productivity. Mostly I find he's got advice that seems generally useful in any career, which can be boiled down to be wary of working on something without regard to how it fits into the bigger picture.
- btilly 8y agoThere is indeed more to it. But his reasoning starts with the assumption that it is possible to know what the big problems are in a field. Which assumption this article started by questioning. And I'm sure that in the author's field, this assumption looks more questionable than it did to Hamming.
- bloomer 8y agoI think you may have missed his point slightly. He isn't questioning whether one can identify important results after the fact. He is questioning whether one can identify important discoveries that haven't yet been made. In many fields of inquiry one can assemble a list of important open questions. The issue is whether if you keep that list and check back whether 1) any of those questions have been answered 2) whether the answer turned out to be important 3) whether other questions not on the list were answered and turned out to be more important. He is arguing that 1 and 3 are the more likely outcomes so that a question being on such a list is likely not a good indicator that it is a fruitful avenue of research. Some examples would be things like grand unified physics theories, the Riemann hypothesis, whether P=NP. Will any of those be solved in the next 10 years, unclear, will something not on the list but also important be solved, chances are highly likely.