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The question people need to address, is whether AI is a tool like the evolution from the Gun to the automatic rifle. OR whether AI is the kind of tool like fli

The question people need to address, is whether AI is a tool like the evolution from the Gun to the automatic rifle. OR whether AI is the kind of tool like flight, which made fortresses redundant. We have many areas of thought and society, which have been protected by walls of 'difficulty' making them intractable to large scale, automated and effective manipulation. This may no longer be the case, and AI may well represent the more fundamental change of the second kind.

austincheney 8y ago
Why must people know those things? As with any new technology the second and third order consequences are unclear and will likely be entirely surprising beyond any intended (or not) consequences. Here is what my own experience in programming and my understanding of history have taught me. A sufficiently advanced understanding of a useful technology (doesn't even have to be new) allows a small group dominance over spaces traditionally controlled by large organizations or heavy investments in large technology. This causes fear and panic when it becomes clear. The common current solution is to attempt to purchase the competition, but what if the competition is not available for purchase? Perhaps the most common fallacy regarding new technology is that you can destroy the competition with a sufficiently large force. History has proven this false numerous times and it remains false with modern technology. Consider the battle of Argincout, battle of Crecy, or the establishment of the Yuan dynasty. Consider how much current corporations are investing in AI research with thousands of dedicated developers. A superior technology can easily compete with Amazon's AI unit, for example, even though you may have a team of 5 developers competing against their 5000. The reason why is because it takes time to learn and develop a superior understanding of technology necessary to create the superior technology while the army of competing developers will find friction abandoning their perceptions of reality even when confronted with critical evidence. An army of 5000 developers is an establishment of culture, practices, identify, and perceptions resulting in a large stagnant wall.

austincheney 8y ago

Why must people know those things? As with any new technology the second and third order consequences are unclear and will likely be entirely surprising beyond any intended (or not) consequences. Here is what my own experience in programming and my understanding of history have taught me. A sufficiently advanced understanding of a useful technology (doesn't even have to be new) allows a small group dominance over spaces traditionally controlled by large organizations or heavy investments in large technology. This causes fear and panic when it becomes clear. The common current solution is to attempt to purchase the competition, but what if the competition is not available for purchase? Perhaps the most common fallacy regarding new technology is that you can destroy the competition with a sufficiently large force. History has proven this false numerous times and it remains false with modern technology. Consider the battle of Argincout, battle of Crecy, or the establishment of the Yuan dynasty. Consider how much current corporations are investing in AI research with thousands of dedicated developers. A superior technology can easily compete with Amazon's AI unit, for example, even though you may have a team of 5 developers competing against their 5000. The reason why is because it takes time to learn and develop a superior understanding of technology necessary to create the superior technology while the army of competing developers will find friction abandoning their perceptions of reality even when confronted with critical evidence. An army of 5000 developers is an establishment of culture, practices, identify, and perceptions resulting in a large stagnant wall.