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You sound like a person who has difficulty operating in an uncertain environment. Sometimes certainty is expensive. In fact, in my experience with complex syst
by barrkel 8y ago
You sound like a person who has difficulty operating in an uncertain environment.
Sometimes certainty is expensive. In fact, in my experience with complex systems, it usually is. Depending on what you're uncertain about, you may need to modify the system to measure it. Resolving uncertainty can take a long time, particularly if the thing you're trying to be certain about is a rare event or cannot easily be isolated.
When certainty is hard to achieve, making probabilistic decisions sooner and falling back to more costly decisions with more expensive certainty only after those have failed, is a better general strategy, even if you're sometimes wrong. Analysis paralysis is real. Someone who always acts the way you suggest has too much fear of being wrong, IMO.
It could be warranted in other situations, where human life is on the line. I think it's not a fast enough process for most businesses though.
- tchaffee 8y ago> You sound like a person who has difficulty operating in an uncertain environment. Not at all. I deal with uncertainty all the time. What I don't like is people inventing answers, just so they have an answer. I think you'll find this "intolerance" increasingly as you deal with people higher and higher up in management. People's time becomes increasingly the most expensive factor by far. Let's stay focused here. That paragraph in the article is advice about what to do when "someone asks you something you don't know". I'm still firmly in the camp of a simple "I don't know, but I will find out for you." YMMV.