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This is absolutely _not_ about bullshitting your way out of it. Far from it. It is about articulating an hypothesis (based on your experience) of what the answe

This is absolutely _not_ about bullshitting your way out of it. Far from it. It is about articulating an hypothesis (based on your experience) of what the answer is most likely to be. It is saying: "We're not yet sure why the server crashed, but from my experience it is most of the times the A/C system, for which I would suggest checking the logs now". It is honest, articulates a way forward, and might in many meetings just be sufficient to keep the discussion moving forwards. Again, it is the job of a manager to deal with controlled uncertainty.

tchaffee 8y ago
That's not the situation described in the article. The situation described in the article is pretty specific: Someone asks you something you don't know. It's right in the title. And it goes on to describe a situation in which you may end up making up something on the spot, trying to be as vague as possible so you can't be wrong. So yes, if your hypothesis is just something you made up only so you can have an answer, then please don't do that. I don't care how solid the guess is. It's still a guess just to have an answer. In the situation you described, you do know something and you're sharing that knowledge. I have no problem with people sharing that knowledge. It's not a hypothesis. It's the opposite of "you don't know". It's knowledge about the history of the situation.