5 ms·

There's no way the federal shutdown lasts too much longer. The heat is on and too many people feel the hurt now, especially in a place like New York. If I were

There's no way the federal shutdown lasts too much longer. The heat is on and too many people feel the hurt now, especially in a place like New York. If I were a betting man, I'd say 3-4 days max.

creaghpatr 8y ago
If the airports remain shut down, the economic cost will quickly balloon to multiples of the $5.7B requested for the wall. It's literally a rounding error in the budget.
- ocdtrekkie 8y ago
  Nobody actually cares about the $5.7 billion dollars, it's chump change for the government. This is all about appearance. The Democrats will lose face if they sign off on a budget which allows him to build his wall, and Trump will lose face if he fails to start building it (presumably in time for the next election). (It's also notable that neither party, politically, has a good reason to end it. Trump will have a hard time holding onto even his strongest supporters come reelection if he can't start the wall, the most tangible and physical representation of his promises to his base, and the longer the shutdown persists, the better Democrats will do in Congress next election, the shutdown is a political godsend.)
  - AceJohnny2 8y ago
    The wall he said Mexico would pay for? Didn't he already lose that face?
    - mattnewton 8y ago
      He has many faces.
  - nemothekid 8y ago
    > This is all about appearance. I don't think the democrats should cave because this is a terrible precedent that far outstrips "appearance". It feels like a perversion of checks and balances where, because on side doesn't get what they want, they shut down the entire government until the other side caves. I won't be a fan of future presidents shutting down the government every time they can't come to a bipartisan agreement.
    - ocdtrekkie 8y ago
      Sure, but it also means that your position is that our government should be shut down and people should be unable to feed their families to prevent giving the opposition a mostly meaningless amount of money to build a useless thing that pales in comparison to how much we've blown on the F-35 (literally like 1% of the cost), a largely useless airplane. Which is to say, one party is certainly responsible for picking this fight, but both parties are responsible for not ending it.
      - nemothekid 8y ago
        Is your point that one side should cave because the numbers are meaningless? If so, I don't agree - they aren't meaningless. No one should be able to hold the American people hostage in order to get what they want - it not democratic. You shouldn't be allowed to undermine democracy by using threatening Americans as hostage - fullstop. Your suggestion is to just cave whenever one side threatens a shutdown is unacceptable They are acting like children. If your son relentlessly bullied your other baby and in order for your baby to stop crying your son said "give me $5" (a meaningless amount to most adults) - the solution wouldn't be to give him $5 and teach him that whenever he wants money he just has to threaten throw the baby down the stairs.
      - dragontamer 8y ago
        The Democrats have the CR on their side: Continuing Resolution. The Democrats are asking for a simple, clean CR (the proposition to keep the old budget for just 3 or 4 weeks while we debate longer) If the clean CR fails, then its a terrible future ahead. In 2018, when Democrats were in the opposite situation (they were denying the CR), it was on the onus of the Republicans to push for the CR. -------- The only reason why the CR is agreed upon in the past, is because both sides recognize the harm that a shutdown would cause. Unfortunately, one side is willing to shutdown the government and avoid the CR this time.
  - flyingpenguin 8y ago
    It is also about not teaching people that you can subvert democratic practice and get what you want.
  - larkeith 8y ago
    As another commentor noted, this is a matter of precedence for the Democrats. Trump has refused to accept continuing resolution proposals unless they include a down payment on the wall [1] - these proposals continue prior funding while the budget is discussed, alleviating the shutdown. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-2-dozen-house-dems-watch-senate-shutdown-vote/2019/01/24/22637934-2021-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html?noredirect=on https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-2-dozen-h...
- lexs 8y ago
  I wouldn't say its a rounding error, it's roughly the budget of the National Science Foundation which seems more sensible than a ...wall
  - rootusrootus 8y ago
    That's one of the things that I find most infuriating. When it comes time to defund something like public broadcasting, it's all supposedly about the cost. When it's time to build a wall, it's a tiny fraction of the budget. We have such whacked priorities.
- mattnewton 8y ago
  It’s not about this line item, it’s about the executive branch ursurping the power of the purse by holding federal workers and huge sectors of our economy ransom. Trump was on national tv saying he’s intentionally doing this for a pet project.
- larkeith 8y ago
  The 2013 government shutdown cost 0.1%-0.2% of the annualized GDP growth rate per week [1]. If I'm understanding correctly and doing my math right, with a GDP of about 20t $usd and a 3.5% growth rate, that's a 350b-700b $usd reduction in GDP. [1] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2013/10/03/closed-until-further-notice https://www.economist.com/united-states/2013/10/03/closed-un...
wonderwonder 8y ago
I think you are probably right, but I think it will end because the admin will declare a border emergency to try and get funding. The senate will then pass a clean bill and the emergency bill will get stuck in the courts. Right now this is only going on because of the admin wanting to save face.
- tomschlick 8y ago
  > Right now this is only going on because of the admin wanting to save face. To be fair, the administration has made several concessions (steel instead of concrete barrier, a multi step funding proposal, DACA extension, etc), while the Democratic leadership has been unwilling to compromise on increased funding for border security. It is on both sides that this shutdown has gone on so long.
  - wonderwonder 8y ago
    I get where you are coming from, but I don't really see how deciding to build the wall out of steel is a compromise, when it was not anything the Democrats wanted. The DACA extension really gets them nothing as DACA deportations are on hold indefinitely any way due to the courts. There is already a surplus of border security funds that went unused in the prior year so an increase again is not a concession for the Democrats. The shutdown began under a government where all 3 branches were under Republican control when the Admin. refused a bill that had already cleared both houses, the Senate via unanimous consensus. So the shutdown is absolutely the direct result of the Admin. In regards to its continuation, were the Democrats to yield this would set a precedent that a shutdown can be used to force negotiation at gunpoint with real people used as hostages. I really don't see how this is anything except an attempt for the Admin. to save face over a failed campaign promise to build a wall that would be paid for by another nation. The senate Republicans refusal to approve the same bill they unanimously voted for is the reason the shutdown continues.
- wonderwonder 8y ago
  I was wrong, the Admin just caved.
miramardesign 8y ago
we will all soon be reminded of the importance of borders.
cr1895 8y ago
>especially in a place like New York. Staff shortages causing this are at Washington Center, which is not located in NYC. "Staffing ZDC" https://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp https://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

There's no way the federal shutdown lasts too much longer. The heat is on and too many people feel the hurt now, especially in a place like New York. If I were a betting man, I'd say 3-4 days max.

creaghpatr 8y ago

If the airports remain shut down, the economic cost will quickly balloon to multiples of the $5.7B requested for the wall. It's literally a rounding error in the budget.

ocdtrekkie 8y ago
Nobody actually cares about the $5.7 billion dollars, it's chump change for the government. This is all about appearance. The Democrats will lose face if they sign off on a budget which allows him to build his wall, and Trump will lose face if he fails to start building it (presumably in time for the next election). (It's also notable that neither party, politically, has a good reason to end it. Trump will have a hard time holding onto even his strongest supporters come reelection if he can't start the wall, the most tangible and physical representation of his promises to his base, and the longer the shutdown persists, the better Democrats will do in Congress next election, the shutdown is a political godsend.)
- AceJohnny2 8y ago
  The wall he said Mexico would pay for? Didn't he already lose that face?
  - mattnewton 8y ago
    He has many faces.
- nemothekid 8y ago
  > This is all about appearance. I don't think the democrats should cave because this is a terrible precedent that far outstrips "appearance". It feels like a perversion of checks and balances where, because on side doesn't get what they want, they shut down the entire government until the other side caves. I won't be a fan of future presidents shutting down the government every time they can't come to a bipartisan agreement.
  - ocdtrekkie 8y ago
    Sure, but it also means that your position is that our government should be shut down and people should be unable to feed their families to prevent giving the opposition a mostly meaningless amount of money to build a useless thing that pales in comparison to how much we've blown on the F-35 (literally like 1% of the cost), a largely useless airplane. Which is to say, one party is certainly responsible for picking this fight, but both parties are responsible for not ending it.
    - nemothekid 8y ago
      Is your point that one side should cave because the numbers are meaningless? If so, I don't agree - they aren't meaningless. No one should be able to hold the American people hostage in order to get what they want - it not democratic. You shouldn't be allowed to undermine democracy by using threatening Americans as hostage - fullstop. Your suggestion is to just cave whenever one side threatens a shutdown is unacceptable They are acting like children. If your son relentlessly bullied your other baby and in order for your baby to stop crying your son said "give me $5" (a meaningless amount to most adults) - the solution wouldn't be to give him $5 and teach him that whenever he wants money he just has to threaten throw the baby down the stairs.
    - dragontamer 8y ago
      The Democrats have the CR on their side: Continuing Resolution. The Democrats are asking for a simple, clean CR (the proposition to keep the old budget for just 3 or 4 weeks while we debate longer) If the clean CR fails, then its a terrible future ahead. In 2018, when Democrats were in the opposite situation (they were denying the CR), it was on the onus of the Republicans to push for the CR. -------- The only reason why the CR is agreed upon in the past, is because both sides recognize the harm that a shutdown would cause. Unfortunately, one side is willing to shutdown the government and avoid the CR this time.
- flyingpenguin 8y ago
  It is also about not teaching people that you can subvert democratic practice and get what you want.
- larkeith 8y ago
  As another commentor noted, this is a matter of precedence for the Democrats. Trump has refused to accept continuing resolution proposals unless they include a down payment on the wall [1] - these proposals continue prior funding while the budget is discussed, alleviating the shutdown. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-2-dozen-house-dems-watch-senate-shutdown-vote/2019/01/24/22637934-2021-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html?noredirect=on https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/the-latest-2-dozen-h...
lexs 8y ago
I wouldn't say its a rounding error, it's roughly the budget of the National Science Foundation which seems more sensible than a ...wall
- rootusrootus 8y ago
  That's one of the things that I find most infuriating. When it comes time to defund something like public broadcasting, it's all supposedly about the cost. When it's time to build a wall, it's a tiny fraction of the budget. We have such whacked priorities.
mattnewton 8y ago
It’s not about this line item, it’s about the executive branch ursurping the power of the purse by holding federal workers and huge sectors of our economy ransom. Trump was on national tv saying he’s intentionally doing this for a pet project.
larkeith 8y ago
The 2013 government shutdown cost 0.1%-0.2% of the annualized GDP growth rate per week [1]. If I'm understanding correctly and doing my math right, with a GDP of about 20t $usd and a 3.5% growth rate, that's a 350b-700b $usd reduction in GDP. [1] https://www.economist.com/united-states/2013/10/03/closed-until-further-notice https://www.economist.com/united-states/2013/10/03/closed-un...

wonderwonder 8y ago

I think you are probably right, but I think it will end because the admin will declare a border emergency to try and get funding. The senate will then pass a clean bill and the emergency bill will get stuck in the courts. Right now this is only going on because of the admin wanting to save face.

tomschlick 8y ago
> Right now this is only going on because of the admin wanting to save face. To be fair, the administration has made several concessions (steel instead of concrete barrier, a multi step funding proposal, DACA extension, etc), while the Democratic leadership has been unwilling to compromise on increased funding for border security. It is on both sides that this shutdown has gone on so long.
- wonderwonder 8y ago
  I get where you are coming from, but I don't really see how deciding to build the wall out of steel is a compromise, when it was not anything the Democrats wanted. The DACA extension really gets them nothing as DACA deportations are on hold indefinitely any way due to the courts. There is already a surplus of border security funds that went unused in the prior year so an increase again is not a concession for the Democrats. The shutdown began under a government where all 3 branches were under Republican control when the Admin. refused a bill that had already cleared both houses, the Senate via unanimous consensus. So the shutdown is absolutely the direct result of the Admin. In regards to its continuation, were the Democrats to yield this would set a precedent that a shutdown can be used to force negotiation at gunpoint with real people used as hostages. I really don't see how this is anything except an attempt for the Admin. to save face over a failed campaign promise to build a wall that would be paid for by another nation. The senate Republicans refusal to approve the same bill they unanimously voted for is the reason the shutdown continues.
wonderwonder 8y ago
I was wrong, the Admin just caved.

miramardesign 8y ago

we will all soon be reminded of the importance of borders.

cr1895 8y ago

>especially in a place like New York. Staff shortages causing this are at Washington Center, which is not located in NYC. "Staffing ZDC" https://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp https://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp