3 ms·

Everyone should read the Lloyd's analysis of a potential second event [1]. >The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level

by sb057 8y ago

Everyone should read the Lloyd's analysis of a potential second event [1]. >The total U.S. population at risk of extended power outage from a Carrington-level storm is between 20-40 million, with durations of 16 days to 1-2 years. The duration of outages will depend largely on the availability of spare replacement transformers. If new transformers need to be ordered, the lead-time is likely to be a minimum of five months. The total economic cost for such a scenario is estimated at $0.6-2.6 trillion USD (see Appendix). >While the probability of an extreme storm occurring is relatively low at any given time, it is almost inevitable that one will occur eventually. Historical auroral records suggest a return period of 50 years for Quebec-level storms and 150 years for very extreme storms, such as the Carrington Event that occurred 154 years ago. Bear in mind, this report was authored six years ago. [1] http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk%20reports/solar%20storm%20risk%20to%20the%20north%20american%20electric%20grid.pdf http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/reports/emerging%20risk...

dfsegoat 8y ago
Having been through a multi-day power outage in the 2017 Tubbs Fire (where many transmission lines + tformers had to be replaced over weeks): I can honestly say that I don't think we can fathom what would happen during a multi-week or month power outage. Imagine: No phones. No internet. No cell or data. No fresh food. No running water. Can't get gasoline to go somewhere else... The tension is literally palpable. It was by far the most mind-altering experience I've had in terms of making me realize how thin the veil of society really is.
- fragmede 8y ago
  Hopefully you're able to translate experience to preparedness, if you weren't already, and given California propensity for earthquakes (where the Tubbs fire occurred), that you have enough food and water stockpiled for at least a few days, if not longer. These days an earthquake preparedness kit might also consider including a small solar panel and an old cell-phone.
- njharman 8y ago
  Shit can happen. Get prepared or be a victim. I'm lazy and unorganized still I'm readyish for 2 weeks of outage. (More than 2wk seems unlikely enough / posses harder problems to solve I don't worry bout it) I have 3-4 weeks of water, more than that in food, crappy canned food, but food. Weeks of Coffee and TP for my bunghole. Trauma and first aide gear. Gun. I really should get a portable generator. I'd rather just get a couple of Tesla powerwalls and solar...
  - mikeash 8y ago
    This is an oddly glib response to a thread that started out by saying some people would face outages of 1-2 years.
- dsfyu404ed 8y ago
  > I can honestly say that I don't think we can fathom what would happen during a multi-week or month power outage. Pretty much anyone living in a rural or semi-rural area where freezing rain sometimes happens in the winter or hurricanes sometimes happen in the fall has experience with a week or longer power outage. It wouldn't be "business as usual" but a lot of people would be fine. The intersection between those people and people posting on HN just happens to be low.
  - int_19h 8y ago
    A week-long outage is annoying. A month-long outage would be disastrous, even for those areas. There are many things you can do without power, but e.g. drugs require refrigeration, and we have people whose life depends on drugs (think insulin, for starters). But also, urban areas would be harder hit precisely because they rely on their infrastructure more. And those areas are also the ones with more people.
- munificent 8y ago
  I grew up in the South, so I've been without power (and once water) because of hurricanes a few times. My experience was that it was startling at first. Without A/C and lights, a house no longer feels like a home and instead feels like you're camping out in a building. It's hard to convey how different that fact feels. The whole concept of "being inside" gets fuzzy. But then, you get used to it. If you have water, you shower in the dark. You grill a lot. It's not a big deal... for a couple of days. Where it gets really scary is that the longer an area goes without power, the worse it gets. Stockpiles and safeguards assume a certain max duration and as those get exhausted, new problems appear. You run out of perishable food, gas in your car, and charcoal to grill with. Eventually, hospitals run out of diesel for backup generators. When that happens, people start dying very quickly. I imagine at some point the sewer system fails and then disease starts spreading. The Dark Ages are always there waiting to return as soon as the infrastructure is down long enough.

by sb057 8y ago

dfsegoat 8y ago

Having been through a multi-day power outage in the 2017 Tubbs Fire (where many transmission lines + tformers had to be replaced over weeks): I can honestly say that I don't think we can fathom what would happen during a multi-week or month power outage. Imagine: No phones. No internet. No cell or data. No fresh food. No running water. Can't get gasoline to go somewhere else... The tension is literally palpable. It was by far the most mind-altering experience I've had in terms of making me realize how thin the veil of society really is.

fragmede 8y ago
Hopefully you're able to translate experience to preparedness, if you weren't already, and given California propensity for earthquakes (where the Tubbs fire occurred), that you have enough food and water stockpiled for at least a few days, if not longer. These days an earthquake preparedness kit might also consider including a small solar panel and an old cell-phone.
njharman 8y ago
Shit can happen. Get prepared or be a victim. I'm lazy and unorganized still I'm readyish for 2 weeks of outage. (More than 2wk seems unlikely enough / posses harder problems to solve I don't worry bout it) I have 3-4 weeks of water, more than that in food, crappy canned food, but food. Weeks of Coffee and TP for my bunghole. Trauma and first aide gear. Gun. I really should get a portable generator. I'd rather just get a couple of Tesla powerwalls and solar...
- mikeash 8y ago
  This is an oddly glib response to a thread that started out by saying some people would face outages of 1-2 years.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
> I can honestly say that I don't think we can fathom what would happen during a multi-week or month power outage. Pretty much anyone living in a rural or semi-rural area where freezing rain sometimes happens in the winter or hurricanes sometimes happen in the fall has experience with a week or longer power outage. It wouldn't be "business as usual" but a lot of people would be fine. The intersection between those people and people posting on HN just happens to be low.
- int_19h 8y ago
  A week-long outage is annoying. A month-long outage would be disastrous, even for those areas. There are many things you can do without power, but e.g. drugs require refrigeration, and we have people whose life depends on drugs (think insulin, for starters). But also, urban areas would be harder hit precisely because they rely on their infrastructure more. And those areas are also the ones with more people.
munificent 8y ago
I grew up in the South, so I've been without power (and once water) because of hurricanes a few times. My experience was that it was startling at first. Without A/C and lights, a house no longer feels like a home and instead feels like you're camping out in a building. It's hard to convey how different that fact feels. The whole concept of "being inside" gets fuzzy. But then, you get used to it. If you have water, you shower in the dark. You grill a lot. It's not a big deal... for a couple of days. Where it gets really scary is that the longer an area goes without power, the worse it gets. Stockpiles and safeguards assume a certain max duration and as those get exhausted, new problems appear. You run out of perishable food, gas in your car, and charcoal to grill with. Eventually, hospitals run out of diesel for backup generators. When that happens, people start dying very quickly. I imagine at some point the sewer system fails and then disease starts spreading. The Dark Ages are always there waiting to return as soon as the infrastructure is down long enough.