4 ms·
Depends on whether that figure is based on a point sample of expectancy for an event of that scale, or if it’s based on the expectancy due to the time elapsed s
by madaxe_again 8y ago
Depends on whether that figure is based on a point sample of expectancy for an event of that scale, or if it’s based on the expectancy due to the time elapsed since the last event.
As it’s an independent probability (i.e. the time elapsed since the last event does not affect the probability of reoccurrence), it’s likely the former, and therefore the same expected value - 1.2% in any given year.
- thanatropism 8y agoYou're looking at something like the geometric distribution. The chance that the event does not happen is 88%. And since years are independent and identically distributed as you say, 88% = q^10 so q~= 98.7%; therefore the chances that it does happen are ~=1.3% (As it turns out, your approximation works because as the time-grid becomes finer and finer, the geometric process becomes a gamma process. It does fail dramatically for 2-7 years.)
- platz 8y agoSeems odd the probabilities are actually did because of longer term solar cycles