3 ms·

All such articles should be preceded by huge blink tags with 'Warning: survivorship bias ahead'.

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
ngngngng 8y ago
I think 99% of the time bringing up survivorship bias adds nothing to the conversation. If I tell you how I ran a marathon, you could shout "survivorship bias!" But that fact still stands that I hadn't successfully run a marathon before I did those things.
- hoaw 8y ago
  It would be warranted if you explained how to run a marathon the same way people explain how to be successful. Which you probably wouldn't.
- bqe 8y ago
  The thing is running a marathon isn't that hard and there's little to no luck involved. By following a rigid plan most people can do it in about a year. Millions of people do it every year. However if you followed all of Sam's advice to the letter you could remain relatively unsuccessful despite all that advice. That's what survivorship bias is about: there's a significant luck component to success.
- exolymph 8y ago
  > If I tell you how I ran a marathon, you could shout "survivorship bias!" But that fact still stands that I hadn't successfully run a marathon before I did those things. Well, yeah, the whole point is that we don't know how many people did those same things and then failed to complete a marathon.
- thisisweirdok 8y ago
  It's not meant to add to the conversation, it's meant to get people to shut up about giving advice on becoming successful. There's no trick to it, you need to work and get lucky. Emphasis on the getting lucky. We don't need 1,000 thinkpieces from people who are already successful. Give me an article from a person who can reflect on why they're not successful. That will be more interesting any day of the week.
  - ngngngng 8y ago
    > That will be more interesting any day of the week. I doubt it. I'm not successful because I haven't even put in the work these articles lay out. And I definitely haven't gotten lucky. I assume millions of dollars definitely won't come my way until I at least do the part of the equation in my control. Doesn't sound like a very interesting article to me.
  - Alex3917 8y ago
    > There's no trick to it, you need to work and get lucky. Emphasis on the getting lucky. Pretty much everyone gets lucky eventually though. You might never hit a home run, but if you go to bat enough times then sooner or later you're going to get hit by the ball and walked to first.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- distant_hat 8y ago
  No, it is to distinguish activities that worked versus activities that are inconsequential. That way you can identify how to get the most bang for your time and energy.
whttheuuu 8y ago
loser mentality
- distant_hat 8y ago
  No, just a scientist mentality.
lkbm 8y ago
This isn't an article about how sama was successful. It's an articler about traits sama--a person who spends most of his time observing people succeed or fail at business--has observed more common in people successful at business. He's in a much better position than most any of us to avoid survivorship bias in this. I see people once their business succeeds. He's there observing people early on, so he gets to witness both the successes and the failures.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

I think 99% of the time bringing up survivorship bias adds nothing to the conversation. If I tell you how I ran a marathon, you could shout "survivorship bias!" But that fact still stands that I hadn't successfully run a marathon before I did those things.

hoaw 8y ago
It would be warranted if you explained how to run a marathon the same way people explain how to be successful. Which you probably wouldn't.
bqe 8y ago
The thing is running a marathon isn't that hard and there's little to no luck involved. By following a rigid plan most people can do it in about a year. Millions of people do it every year. However if you followed all of Sam's advice to the letter you could remain relatively unsuccessful despite all that advice. That's what survivorship bias is about: there's a significant luck component to success.
exolymph 8y ago
> If I tell you how I ran a marathon, you could shout "survivorship bias!" But that fact still stands that I hadn't successfully run a marathon before I did those things. Well, yeah, the whole point is that we don't know how many people did those same things and then failed to complete a marathon.
thisisweirdok 8y ago
It's not meant to add to the conversation, it's meant to get people to shut up about giving advice on becoming successful. There's no trick to it, you need to work and get lucky. Emphasis on the getting lucky. We don't need 1,000 thinkpieces from people who are already successful. Give me an article from a person who can reflect on why they're not successful. That will be more interesting any day of the week.
- ngngngng 8y ago
  > That will be more interesting any day of the week. I doubt it. I'm not successful because I haven't even put in the work these articles lay out. And I definitely haven't gotten lucky. I assume millions of dollars definitely won't come my way until I at least do the part of the equation in my control. Doesn't sound like a very interesting article to me.
- Alex3917 8y ago
  > There's no trick to it, you need to work and get lucky. Emphasis on the getting lucky. Pretty much everyone gets lucky eventually though. You might never hit a home run, but if you go to bat enough times then sooner or later you're going to get hit by the ball and walked to first.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
distant_hat 8y ago
No, it is to distinguish activities that worked versus activities that are inconsequential. That way you can identify how to get the most bang for your time and energy.

whttheuuu 8y ago

loser mentality

distant_hat 8y ago
No, just a scientist mentality.

lkbm 8y ago

This isn't an article about how sama was successful. It's an articler about traits sama--a person who spends most of his time observing people succeed or fail at business--has observed more common in people successful at business. He's in a much better position than most any of us to avoid survivorship bias in this. I see people once their business succeeds. He's there observing people early on, so he gets to witness both the successes and the failures.